When will GPT-5 be announced? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion around the announcement of GPT-5 primarily revolves around whether OpenAI's recently released "o1" model series qualifies as GPT-5. A significant part of the debate hinges on the interpretation of what constitutes a successor to GPT-4, and whether the o1 models fulfill the market's criteria. Participants argue over the definitions set in the rules, noting that GPT-5 should either be explicitly named or be a direct successor in the way that previous models were. Additionally, there is mention that the o1 series is a separate line from GPT and should not be confused as its successor. Opinions differ on whether this market should resolve based on these new developments.

The o1 Series Debate: A key topic is whether OpenAI's o1 model counts as GPT-5. Some argue it does, due to its advancement over GPT-4, while others point out it's a distinct line not intended as a successor.
Criteria Ambiguity: The rules specify that GPT-5 must be named as such or be a successor in a clear lineage, highlighting the confusion over whether any deviation disqualifies the o1 series from being considered for this market’s resolution.

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OpenAIs "o1" was just announced and released, and is not based on GPT-4 ("new set of AI models": https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/)

yep this market should resolve

OpenAIs "o1" was just announced and released, and is not based on GPT-4 ("new set of AI models": https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/)

0x1B0D02900D3B5d292977b358263cf68f008AcAeF-1723740249789

"We also plan to continue developing and releasing models in our GPT series, in addition to the new OpenAI o1 series. " Unfortunately not it seems...

yep this market should resolve

Seems quite clear this is the successor to gpt4: "As an early model, it doesn't yet have many of the features that make ChatGPT useful, like browsing the web for information and uploading files and images. For many common cases GPT-4o will be more capable in the near term. But for complex reasoning tasks this is a significant advancement and represents a new level of AI capability. Given this, we are resetting the counter back to 1 and naming this series OpenAI o1."

Free monies best monies, that’s what my grandpa always said before he died of testicular cancer

The “-o1” series doesn’t qualify as GPT-5 because: 1. GPT-5 is defined as a successor to GPT-4, similar to how GPT-4 succeeded GPT-3. The “-o1” series is a completely separate line of models. 2. OpenAI is developing the GPT series alongside the o1 series, indicating they are distinct.

Seems quite clear this is the successor to gpt4: "As an early model, it doesn't yet have many of the features that make ChatGPT useful, like browsing the web for information and uploading files and images. For many common cases GPT-4o will be more capable in the near term. But for complex reasoning tasks this is a significant advancement and represents a new level of AI capability. Given this, we are resetting the counter back to 1 and naming this series OpenAI o1."

your moving goal posts. You're talking like Open AI is only allowed to have 1 product line. o1 is clearly a succesor to GPT4; otherwise it would be name 4.o1, nor would they do a front page announcement.

The “-o1” series doesn’t qualify as GPT-5 because: 1. GPT-5 is defined as a successor to GPT-4, similar to how GPT-4 succeeded GPT-3. The “-o1” series is a completely separate line of models. 2. OpenAI is developing the GPT series alongside the o1 series, indicating they are distinct.

https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1864328928267259941

Mira says a year and a half https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1803901130130497952

Yep--- the simple fact, that you can select it as a separate model from GPT-4; this should be resolved.

OpenAIs "o1" was just announced and released, and is not based on GPT-4 ("new set of AI models": https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/)