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Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
Last updated 0 months ago
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ManL
2 months ago
Bro, in Venezuela those are the life savings
Nebule
2 months ago
why don't you bet your life savings then ?
person1
2 months ago
As a Venezuelan, I and am very disappointed by this market. I read the fine print carefully– particularly “the primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Venezuela” – and concluded that this bet was about who the regime’s Electoral Authority (CNE) would announce as the winner. This reading was consistent with Maduro trading at ~80 cents, which “priced in” that Venezuela’s institutions are stacked in Chavismo’s favor and are very likely to declare Maduro winner regardless of what happened on election day. This market was a hedge for me. I knew Maduro would be announced winner, and that my family will continue to be screwed by his incompetence and corruption for years to come. So I bet Maduro YES to recover some money from that depressing prospect. The Electoral Authority has now declared twice that Maduro is the winner. First on July 29th with “80%” of the votes counted, and then again on Aug 2nd with “96.87% of the votes counted” and 51.95% Maduro, 43.18% Gonzalez, a mathematically irreversible result. And yet this market has not resolved. I do not understand this. My hope is that once Venezuela’s Supreme Court looks at the supposed “evidence” that the Electoral Authority and all candidates have submitted and makes a “verdict” – once again affirming Maduro the winner – that the market will finally resolve Maduro YES, as it should have two days ago.
n/a
2 months ago
Denying reality is the first step towards starting to lose money. The official result is on the scoreboard. The Presidents of Russia and China are congratulating Maduro on his victory. What is there to talk about? That the US, which wants to control oil supplies in the region, is pressuring Maduro and making statements that the elections were not fair? Or that the opposition politician does not acknowledge his defeat? Guys, even Trump didn't acknowledge his defeat in 2020. But the result is on the scoreboard.
colorcoral
2 months ago
"The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Venezuela". There's absolutely no grounds for dispute (of this market), since there is no ambiguity whatsoever in the official Venezuelan result. Whether or not the election was stolen is irrelevant here. The market was on the official result.
n/a
2 months ago
The current market and situation with the percentages no longer reflect reality (other betting markets in different sites have already closed - Maduro won), but rather reflect the market's expectation of how the UMA community will vote. This is, of course, nonsense because, in essence, the UMA community can act as a political organization that recognizes or does not recognize the official election results. A very interesting situation could arise - the official authorities of Venezuela declared Maduro the winner, all betting markets declared Maduro the winner, Russia + China (+basically the entire anti-Western alliance) recognize Maduro's victory, and only the Venezuella opposition, the USA (+the entire pro-Western world), and Polymarket recognize Gonzalez? Don't you guys think this is no longer betting, but clear political statements?
XiJinPing
2 months ago
I declare Xi (myself) as official U.S. president, then tell 1.4 billion Chinese to vote yes, then I'm U.S. president. This is how polymarket works lmao.
bigdicker
2 months ago
The entity that conducted the elections has declared the winner. If you think there was fraud or that someone else should have been chosen, it doesn't matter here. What matters is the official result and the reality, not what you believe to be right
bigdicker
2 months ago
Look, the market is about the "Winner" of Election. According to Venezuelan law, the CNE is responsible for declaring the winner, and based on official Venezuelan government sources, the CNE has declared Nicolás Maduro as the winner. We are not here to validate the integrity of the election, consider what U.S.-aligned governments think, or debate whether Maduro won fairly or fraudulently. These issues are irrelevant to this market. We are only interested in the name of the election winner. Let's not complicate the matter.
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
Recapping again that the opposition has released 81% of the results, and 81% of the precinct results: https://resultadosconvzla.com/ The CNE was required by law to post the full results within 48 hours. They still have only released 80% of the "vote" total, not 100%. And they have released 0% of the precinct results. It looks like Gonzales won by north of 30 points in the election, and the opposition has proved that with verified, signed precinct data direct from the CNE machines.
bigdicker
2 months ago
Polymarket MUST issue an official statement about this situation. This is no longer a prediction market but a market predicting potential rule interpretations and UMA's voting behavior. It's also clear that some big players have tried to manipulate the market to push for a YES on González.
Last update on October 10, 2024, 4:45 PM ET
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