Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

Discussion on the market "Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?" reflected skepticism and debate over the likelihood and evidence of such an event. Participants referenced various sources and reports, including geolocated evidence and social media posts, to argue whether a building in Moscow was hit by an attack. Some expressed confidence based on the reported strikes, while others doubted the validity, suggesting the market was influenced by probabilities and external political contexts. The discussion also highlighted the difficulty in verifying claims without official confirmation from authorities.

Participants debated the likelihood of a strike on Moscow, using reported evidence and social media references to support their views.
Skepticism persisted, with some users questioning the validity of the evidence and the lack of official confirmation from authorities.

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time to buy 0.5ct shares 5 hours before resolution time again

This is the map of Moscow, and troick is clearly a part of it. Troick was hit by drone, so resolve this market to yes already

I believe there is consensus that there was a Ukrainian drone strike in Moscow. There is also plenty of credible reporting.

I wouldn't believe what's coming out of state media from Russia - they said they intercepted all the drones, when video evidence clearly shows one hitting. With this attack being ~10 days after the last, I'd expect to see at least another drone barrage towards Moscow this month. And the odds that this one will count after the evidence and reporting comes in is still high

Time to resolve ''YEZZ''

The drone attacks on Russia damaged at high-rise apartment buildings in the Ramenskoye district of the Moscow region, setting flats on fire, residents told Reuters. A 46-year-old woman was killed and three people were wounded in Ramenskoye, Moscow regional governor Andrei Vorobyov said. Residents said they awoke to blasts and fire. "I looked at the window and saw a ball of fire," Alexander Li, a resident of the district told Reuters. "The window got blown out by the shockwave." Georgy, a resident who declined to give his surname, said he heard a drone buzzing outside his building in the early hours. "I drew back the curtain and it hit the building right before my eyes, I saw it all," he said. "I took my family and we ran outside."

Not to mention JustKen's position (Domah/JustKam/Domer). I, for one, would never, ever take him on at UMA. He's the guy who orchestrated the UMA vote "confirming" Gonzalez won the Venezuela election over Maduro. At least 5 other prediction markets / sportsbooks ran lines on that election; all of them closed with Maduro as the winner. Directly or indirectly or through persuasion or whatever, the dude runs that place.

Time to buy No again? Google the Moscow municipality boundaries pls

*I'm obviously pumping my bags here* If it meant Moscow city ONLY, and specifically meant to exclude Moscow oblast, it should say "any target within the municipality of Moscow". By using the word "or" you are, by definition, describing two differing things. We all agree that Moscow city, and the municipality of Moscow, are the same thing. In addition, we all agree that "Moscow" , could mean the oblast or the municipality. You cannot put the word "or" into that sentence and exclude the oblast, yet include the city, by definition. One can test this language by reversing the two subjects in this phrase. If it said "any target within the municipality or Moscow" we would not be having this argument, yet functionally the sentence would be the same. "You can use the pool on holidays or Sundays" vs "You can use the pool on Sundays or holidays". These sentences are functionally identical, and in no way could it be construed that you couldn't use the pool next Sunday or next national holiday (no matter what day of the week it was). In this case, even if they meant to exclude the oblast from the bet, they unfortunately did the exact opposite in this sentence through their mistake in wording, and accidentally included it. Therefore the bet must resolve as "Yes", and in further iterations of the bet it should be re-worded.

Say it with me: Nothing. Ever. Happens

Cool story bro just let me know if Moscow is gonna get bitch slapped again

It's funny to compete with Americans (?), when you know Russian and understand how to quickly view information. How Kapotnya differs from Kashira and so on.. As a result, I earned $7800😎 I bought shares for 1-2 cents, having seen the news that drones were flying to Moscow, and one fell in Podolsk (Moscow region) Then I simply monitored district chats in different towns. It became immediately clear that at 6:30 a.m. they "shot down" a drone over the Moscow Oil Refinery! At some point at 7:30 a.m. Moscow time, someone simply posted a video of the arrival in one of the district groups in Kapotnya! Local residents began to threaten him there, they will hand him over to the police:) Here I found it, already on Twitter. https://x.com/angelys667/status/1830114144768409775 It wasn't super perfect, but it was clear that it had arrived, and here it is, it helped to earn another $2,500 By the way, I'm rereading the local chat now and realized that the second drone arrived at the refinery at 7:30 in the morning, lol. Already after the deadline. (the deadline is at 7 am (the first one was at 6:25 am and was allegedly shot down, no video). It was probably possible to sell the shares for 99, buy them for 0.5 and continue the dispute But that's another story...