Turnout in 2024 Presidential election? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion on the betting market focuses on the accuracy and methodology of various projections and estimates for the 2024 U.S. presidential election turnout. Participants debate the utility and reliability of data from sources like the UFL (UFL Elect Project) and NEP (National Election Pool), considering discrepancies between projected and actual vote counts. A significant point of contention is the distinction between 'ballots cast' and 'votes for President,' leading to confusion and mispricing in the market. There is also a discussion on trading strategies and the implications of the projections on current market shares.

The confusion between ballots cast and actual votes for President is causing speculation about market mispricing and the validity of projections.
Participants are critical of certain projections, suggesting that the lack of adjustments for undercounting in specific states casts doubt on some estimates' credibility.

Comments

OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)

Finally, rabs is tapped out. Now we can get 155-160 to a fairish of 75c?

Youre incredibly indecisive. You must change your mind about what to eat for dinner 4 times before you commit.

UnlimitedMarketAbuse

rabs any chance you can do another major pump so i can buy back in :)

oh man i really messed up :(( i had an excel spreadsheet error

Thank god 155-160 is inclusive of 155. At this point every vote matters

Stfu magatard and buy some shares

175M voters this year is possible, Biden can summon death people and zombie to vote for him, so who know what Harris will do?

oh no im just retarded

UnlimitedMarketAbuse

Deleted the post as some folks seem to know who 'rabs' is, and speculation seems counterproductive if that's the case.

I have been told some schizo is talking about me

Haha, this market really feels like a relationship with a bipolar person

Nate's model is using linear extrapolation as he wrote in a follow up tweet, but that isn't how all the votes drop because of the provisionals. In 2020, total vote was 156.4 M on Nov 23 after a slow climb in the week before then 156.9 M on Nov 31 and then by Dec 5 it was 158.4 M which was near final total. I'm very happy to holding this through the rest of November.