Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion revolves around the betting market for predicting whether Trump will perform better in Florida or Alaska during the 2024 election cycle. Participants primarily engage in debating the statistical models and predictions about vote outcomes, voting margins, and demographic shifts, focusing on factors such as absentee ballots and voting trends from previous elections. There is mention of skepticism and accusations regarding manipulating predictions to influence market values. Several contributors share data analyses and model projections, but opinions vary widely on which state will favor Trump more.

There is significant debate over data accuracy and model projections, with participants questioning the reliability and intentions behind certain claims.
A notable observation from the discussion is the focus on absentee ballots and demographic changes as key factors influencing the voting outcome between Florida and Alaska.

Comments

Imagine betting against DumbMoney1, who knows all.

Can Alaska hurry up and count

There was an update. According to Washington Post, an estimated 80 percent of votes have been counted and the difference is still 15.1%. I believe they still need a week to do the count.

It's % Percentage, not raw number of voters lol. How are people thinking Alaska a stronghold of the GOP for presidential elections will have more Kamala votes than Florida a recent convert from a swing state. Don't be misled by a one-off congressional district where a washed up Palin lost and the turnout was only 32.2% (turnout for the Presidential election is 60.67%, so most apathetic Republicans and moderates had sat out). Again, Alaska is deeper red than Florida. That's obvious.

Alaska is literally free money here. Should be at like 95% instead of 58

Trees don't vote goofy. But they produce oxygen, and lack of oxygen is correlated with voting for trump. Keep up.

Alaska has like 32 billion trees or something crazy.

You better move the Miami Puerto Rican baby mommas to Alaska xD

The rest of the uncounted Alaska votes would have to swing 70% to Kamala in order to Florida to win this. Very unlikely

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Share of votes has remained very consistent since the start of counting, additionally Republicans have maintained above 14% lead for 2008 to 2016, I don't see a high possibility of Alaska losing this

I have gambling issue🎉🎉