Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion around the betting market "Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?" centers on confusion regarding the market's pricing and the conditions for the market to resolve as 'Yes.' Participants express difficulty in understanding the price divergence between buying and selling offers, highlighting issues with bid and ask prices. Some users point out that the end of the war, or even a pause, regardless of Trump's involvement, should resolve the market affirmatively. Others question the relevance of Trump in the market title given that market rules do not mention him specifically. Advice on using limit orders and understanding order books is also shared to help new users navigate the market effectively.

Price Confusion: Users are unclear about why there is a significant difference between buy and sell prices, emphasizing the need for understanding order books and limit orders.
Market Conditions: The market resolves to 'Yes' if the war ends or pauses, irrespective of Trump's role, challenging the relevance of his name in the market title.

Comments

Why put Trump in the title when the rules don't care about Trump at all?

Liked by n/a, n/a and 29 others

Wars are really easy to end. That's why they always end so quickly.

So essentially, if ukraine war ends, or is paused, between now and Janurary 19th, this resolves to yes

oh is that all? LOL

This just requires an announcement from both sides of an armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement with no restriction on when it has to come into effect. They just have to announce something before Jan 19. It doesn't even have to be to do with Trump.

American-American

That doesn't matter. Just read the resolution criteria

How will it be determined if it was who Trump ended the war?

Zelensky is very clearly against a Christmas ceasefire, a truce is almost impossible given the recent escalations and Ukraine holding Sudzha. Also, I don't see why Russia would give Ukraine an opportunity to take a break and consolidate its defenses

ElectronicElitist

This is just free money, right? No one seriously thinks this is going to happen.

Alexej come back, the market is full of Yes's again

American-American

Incentives and disincentives for both sides regarding an Orthodox Christmas ceasefire: UKRAINE INCENTIVES: -Lock in better terms before Trump -Prevent total military collapse -Maintain some Western leverage -Use remaining negotiating power -Preserve some internal stability UKRAINE DISINCENTIVES: -Still has Western support for 20 days -Military not completely broken -Internal opposition to any deal -Fear of appearing weak -Potential domestic backlash RUSSIA INCENTIVES: -Economic strain relief needed -Orthodox Christmas timing perfect -Can claim significant victories -Control narrative pre-Trump -Use peak leverage moment RUSSIA DISINCENTIVES: -Military momentum strong -Territory gains accelerating -Could get more in 20 days -Ukraine position weakening daily -Why stop when winning CRITICAL INSIGHT: While Russia is winning militarily, the combination of economic strain and Orthodox Christmas timing creates a unique window for a simple ceasefire that would let them claim victory while relieving unsustainable pressures. For Ukraine, accepting now means better terms than under Trump, though military situation isn't totally desperate yet. The disincentives, particularly Russia's military momentum, significantly impact probability.