Popular Vote Margin of Victory? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion centers around predicting the margin of the popular vote in a tight election. Various users have shared predictions based on current vote counts and projected trends, with estimates ranging from around 1.5% to over 3% in favor of the GOP. Opinion is divided on whether the margin could exceed 2%, with some users citing statistical projections and others pointing out the unpredictability due to uncounted votes, particularly from California and other states. There's a consensus on the importance of strategic betting within specific percentage ranges, as participants aim to find value based on the fluctuating projected margins.

California's uncounted votes are seen as a significant factor that may affect the final margin, with projections varying as more votes come in.
Debate over the numbers has led to discussions on the reliability of data sources and the potential for leveraged bets on narrow ranges based on current projections.

Comments

looks like califorina is just gonna count a percent every day or two when they have have extra time.

BigDaddyMoneyMaker

Any idea how long this is gonna take?

2-3% has an amazing risk/reward. Hard to see the needle getting below 2%. Kamala flopped huge, even in CA

PerpetualMoneyBurner

Anything from 2-4% can be argued for, i have no clue why everyone is going for 1-2%, she lost MASSIVE chunks of the vote in New York and has lost a MASSIVE chunk of the California vote as well, the percentages will hold in California which will drop it to low 3% high 2% range.

Hes been up 3.4 for hours and the leff areas usually report first from what ive seen. So if it all stays even just 50/50 or 49/50 itll be 3-4% that wins it

Yeah Trump just needs 1 million net votes from famous MAGA stronghold Los Angeles

seeing the number of Trump votes, between 4-6 is a really good choice to make a x1000

Put your money where your mouth is.

I hereby confirm what another person reported. Donald Trump will win the Popular vote by around 2.1. Proof: https://imgur.com/a/UozU91q

I did the same calculations and came up with the same figure as you can see by my comment below. However, I still think that it will be lower than 2%. Smaller counties tally much faster, smaller counties are also much more likely to be Trump favored. That means you can't use the overall state statistics are representative of what future votes will look like, as future votes will be more likely to be Kamala favored. With the number being so close to 2%, this discrepancy will be enough to push under the 2% limit.

I hereby confirm what another person reported. Donald Trump will win the Popular vote by around 2.1. Proof: https://imgur.com/a/UozU91q

Real lol, all these shill accounts and their claims, yet they never actually follow their own advice.

2-3% has an amazing risk/reward. Hard to see the needle getting below 2%. Kamala flopped huge, even in CA

UndefeatedElectionForecaster

2-3 bros will be leaving us soon, I appreciated our time together

Missing ballots ~4,795,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.24 ----- Detail: GOP 76,782,905 ((( 49.71 % ))) ----- DEM 74,810,862 ((( 48.47 % ))) ----- Other 2,759,006 ((( 1.82 % ))) ----- 154,352,773 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.