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Summary
The discussion on the Ohio Presidential Election Winner market is mostly focused on whether Kamala Harris can flip Ohio against Donald Trump. Several users express skepticism about Ohio flipping, citing its shift to the right and Trump's consistent polling advantage. A few highlight the potential impact of the black vote for Harris and note that Ohio has had competitive polling in the past, while others emphasize the financial viability of betting against Harris due to the relatively high risk and current polling trends. Some participants reference specific polls and historical election outcomes to support their positions.
- Polling Data and Trends: There is a general consensus that Ohio has been leaning more Republican, with Trump maintaining a lead in most polls. Users highlight the importance of considering the average polling rather than individual results.
- Impact of Demographics and Specific Issues: The potential influence of the black vote for Harris and Ohio's recent political actions, like legalizing recreational marijuana and protecting abortion rights, are discussed as factors that could affect the election outcome.
Comments
Memosin
3 months ago
i think Harris will win the general with a decent number of electoral votes, But she will never flip Ohio. Ohio has just gotten way too mentally disabled over the last 10 years
5
dilanmathews
3 months ago
trump said on rogan that he is going to win Ohio by a lot
4
SecretButtPirate
5 months ago
Ohio legalized recreational marijuana with 57% support. Ohio changed their constitution to protect abortion rights. While republican Mike DeWine did get re-elected, this was largely due to his swift and strict response to covid unlike many republicans at the time.
3
Buckeyeboy
3 months ago
Most of you are clueless, foreign, or just trying to scare people into liquidating their bets. Ohio is 100% going for Trump as someone who studies this state religiously and knows this state extremely well. Kamala has made very little attempts at ads here for a reason. The state in the previous 2 elections went for trump and in 2020 it was an even wider margin. The polls have this nailed on the head. This is a definitive trump state. Beyond trump itll likely just be lean repub. The more interesting race that is going to be a nail biter is Sharrod Brown vs Bernie Moreno, I have seen a shit ton of ads on virtually every type of media back to back of these 2. My guess is that sharrod brown has a slight lead in reality but its narrow yall. Most likely outcome in my eyes as of oct 22 - Repubs narrowly take the senate - they do have room here from narrowly taking it to winning it by a slightly larger margin. The house seems like its likely going dem, the presidency is a toss up and yall are delusional for thinking this will be a blow out either way. It may appear that way on the electoral college, but the state margins in the key battleground states will be slim. This will be a 1 to 2 state victory imo for the winner either way. The betting markets are being intentionally driven up to pull you suckers in, and the smart money will cash out on FOMO before any result occurs at all. Stay smart on your bets!!
3
GenericUser1234
5 months ago
Not saying it's more than 50% likely, but 13% seems underpriced. There haven't been any GE polls in Ohio since Harris took over. NYT reported recently that GOP showed private polls to the reporter that were worrisome, showing Trump below 50% (see article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/us/politics/trump-campaign-election.html). Also, Senate polls are seeing Brown lead Moreno by 4-5% consistently over last few months (see here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/ohio/). With a likely post DNC convention bounce, I could see new Ohio polls showing a much closer race for Harris, maybe even Harris up 1-2% (remember that Obama won Ohio in 2008). All told, 13% is undervalued IMO, but we'll see.
2
TheBigYin
2 months ago
Provide some liquidity then pls
2
Buckeyeboy
3 months ago
Most of you are clueless, foreign, or just trying to scare people into liquidating their bets. Ohio is 100% going for Trump as someone who studies this state religiously and knows this state extremely well. Kamala has made very little attempts at ads here for a reason. The state in the previous 2 elections went for trump and in 2020 it was an even wider margin. The polls have this nailed on the head. This is a definitive trump state. Beyond trump itll likely just be lean repub. The more interesting race that is going to be a nail biter is Sharrod Brown vs Bernie Moreno, I have seen a shit ton of ads on virtually every type of media back to back of these 2. My guess is that sharrod brown has a slight lead in reality but its narrow yall. Most likely outcome in my eyes as of oct 22 - Repubs narrowly take the senate - they do have room here from narrowly taking it to winning it by a slightly larger margin. The house seems like its likely going dem, the presidency is a toss up and yall are delusional for thinking this will be a blow out either way. It may appear that way on the electoral college, but the state margins in the key battleground states will be slim. This will be a 1 to 2 state victory imo for the winner either way. The betting markets are being intentionally driven up to pull you suckers in, and the smart money will cash out on FOMO before any result occurs at all. Stay smart on your bets!!
Kamala4Prison
2 months ago
On behalf of my Ohio brothers, I would like to sincerely thank all Kamala Harris supporters for their generous donations to the MAGA community!
2
CoolMagic20212
2 months ago
then why dont you bet?
2
Kamala4Prison
2 months ago
Kamala holders still in this market despite the cleveland numbers must actually hate money. This will probably be 15+ for Trump.
polibetter
5 months ago
Obama won both 2008 and 2012 actually
1
GenericUser1234
5 months ago
Not saying it's more than 50% likely, but 13% seems underpriced. There haven't been any GE polls in Ohio since Harris took over. NYT reported recently that GOP showed private polls to the reporter that were worrisome, showing Trump below 50% (see article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/us/politics/trump-campaign-election.html). Also, Senate polls are seeing Brown lead Moreno by 4-5% consistently over last few months (see here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/ohio/). With a likely post DNC convention bounce, I could see new Ohio polls showing a much closer race for Harris, maybe even Harris up 1-2% (remember that Obama won Ohio in 2008). All told, 13% is undervalued IMO, but we'll see.
Andy-Beshear
5 months ago
Getting very competitive in Ohio! (conservative pollster): https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1825299316300554294
1