Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in…? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

In the discussion about the potential for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, several key points were highlighted. There is skepticism about whether Israel would agree to a ceasefire, with some participants expressing doubt over the notion. There's also a consensus on the mechanics of the betting market, where buying 'no' shares on the 'No Ceasefire in 2024' contract means betting that there will indeed be a ceasefire in 2024. This aspect required repeated clarification, indicating some confusion among users. Discussions varied from serious geopolitical considerations to critiques of betting strategies and transparency.

Skepticism about a ceasefire: Participants are doubtful that Israel will agree to a ceasefire, reflecting the general uncertainty and complexity of the geopolitical situation.
Clarification of betting logic: There was significant effort to clarify that betting 'no' on the contract 'No Ceasefire in 2024' means betting that a ceasefire will occur, indicating some confusion among bettors about how the market operates.

Comments

Free? I'll have two then!

fuck nettanyahu free palestine 🇵🇸

This is a betting market, not a charity

hop on folks! https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-cairo-gaza-ceasefire-deal-expected-coming-days-sources-say-2024-12-17/

I've noticed the people who say "free money" are never the ones who bet.

Why this is at 18% no in August? And in the same market before September is at 12%??? 6% free gift lol.

imagine thinking Israel will agree to a ceasefire

HedgedAndLevered2

but otherwise I'm winning $600

HedgedAndLevered2

If they actually bring the hostages home by year end I will be ecstatic

You mean the terrorist population whose polls said they supported the terrorist org hamas by 80% and partied in the streets when they massacred Israelites? Also they shot over 10k missiles at Israel since 2000. You probably weren’t too concerned about that though because you just follow the herd.

fuck nettanyahu free palestine 🇵🇸

I wish they stop fighting and started building more and better schools and sports facilities

Politically Israeli leadership has no interest in a ceasefire. It can undermine the sitting government. If Trump wants a ceasefire and the Israeli leadership want to appease him, then there still is no reason to agree to it before the end of December since inauguration is in January. The outline of a deal is also not clear. Hamas and Israel are nowhere near on what it might look like. International mediators are also going to be busy for the next several weeks with Syria. I just don't see any reason why 'Yes' is at almost 50% here.

well hamas just launched rockets at ashkelon, no ceasefire this year this market is delusional

https://www.reuters.com/world/blinken-says-he-discussed-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-with-turkish-top-officials-2024-12-13/