Netanyahu out in 2024? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

Discussion around the question of whether Netanyahu will cease being Prime Minister by the end of 2024 shows a variety of opinions and interpretations of the market’s terms. Some participants argue that even in extreme political circumstances, such as a parliamentary dissolution or a coup, Netanyahu would remain the official Prime Minister, which could render the bet ineffective. Others express doubts about the Yes side's strong odds, despite no concrete reasons to believe a change in leadership is imminent, fostering skepticism around the market's dynamics.

The market's phrasing "ceases to be Prime Minister" is scrutinized, with concerns about scenarios where Netanyahu remains officially in office despite political turmoil, affecting the bet's validity.
Some bettors are suspicious of the strong position of the Yes side, questioning what factors might be influencing this sentiment amid a lack of clear indications that Netanyahu will step down.

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Wrong. The Israeli law, which is the only one that counts here says otherwise. Once they responsibilities have been transfered, Levin acts as PM amd considered by all Israelis as PM.

If the Prime Minister of Israel (Netanyahu) undergoes a full anesthesia surgery and is expected to stay in the hospital for a few days until he can return to his duties, he is still considered the Prime Minister as long as he has not officially vacated his position. However, a deputy (acting) Prime Minister is appointed, in this case, Israeli Minister Yariv Levin was designated as the acting Prime Minister. The acting Prime Minister assumes the administrative and decision-making powers of the Prime Minister, but the title of "Prime Minister" remains with Netanyahu until there is an official decision otherwise (for example, if he does not return to his position or if there is a formal move to appoint a new leader). In summary, the Prime Minister remains the official Prime Minister even if not actively performing duties, and the acting Prime Minister is responsible for running the government until the Prime Minister resumes his role.

Galant out. Coalition facing a serious problem. Protests expected around the country

Ynet: "Netanyahu is expected to chair the cabinet meeting, then undergo surgery - following which a replacement will be appointed: Israel Katz or Yariv Levin." - https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/bkefxa6rje

BREAKING NEWS Justice Minister Yariv Levin to serve as caretaker PM while Netanyahu is in surgery. https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-835273

This is Israel, a country in a war. It isn't Canada, Belguim or Australia where anything can wait for later. War. So Levin is the PM defacto, with all the responsibilities including to send planes to attack in a remote country, if needed. Our law makes him acting PM and Bibi is removed from deuty until he is back.

https://www.inn.co.il/news/657356#utm_source=rotter-iframe&utm_medium=refrerral Justice Minister Yariv Levin will fill in for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu while he undergoes the medical procedure at Hadassah Ein Kerem Hospital in Jerusalem. Israel Katz will be the chairman of the cabinet and under his authority will be the possibility to convene the cabinet when necessary. Levin will make the decisions. Earlier, the District Court in Tel Aviv approved Prime Minister Netanyahu's request to postpone the scheduled hearings in his trial this week. The request was submitted following the operation to remove the prostate, which he is expected to undergo today under full anesthesia. The request was sent with the consent of the attorney's office. In the request, Netanyahu stated that due to the surgery, he is expected to remain in the hospital for several days.

I'm sure we are right, I'm not sure we will win...

Even if the parliament dissolves today and we're heading towards elections he'll still be PM this year.

Following his surgery Netanyahu is expected to be several days in the hospital. During that time, he will be replaced as PM. So YES.

From Wikipedia: The designated Acting Prime Minister takes the role of Prime Minister as Acting Prime Minister, for up to 100 consecutive days, if the incumbent is temporarily incapacitated. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_of_the_Prime_Minister_of_Israel.