Megaquake in October? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion in this market mostly centers around the probability of a significant earthquake happening in October. Participants are evaluating the historical frequency of major earthquakes, with mentions of the statistical likelihood and long-term trends in seismic activity. There's a clear division in strategy between those who bet based on rare major seismic events occurring and those who perceive the opportunity as a low-risk investment by betting against such rare events. The conversation also incorporates personal beliefs and speculative predictions of potential quake timings.

Some participants, like Mike2025, argue that betting against an October megaquake is a low-risk strategy due to the historically low probability of such events occurring within a short timeframe.
There is a mix of humor and alternative beliefs present, but a few participants focus on scientific data, highlighting the average frequency of large earthquakes over the past 25 years.

Comments

We are overdue for a big one.

You need to become 1 with nature and allow nature to speak too you know the answer to this one. How? You may ask, well the answer is simple sit in your garden naked and become one with the grass and let the earth speak to you. You will hear it angry - October the 27th 🥺

yup really soon ~

We are overdue for a big one.

When all animals and birds disappear, you know one is coming in the next few days.

You need to become 1 with nature and allow nature to speak too you know the answer to this one. How? You may ask, well the answer is simple sit in your garden naked and become one with the grass and let the earth speak to you. You will hear it angry - October the 27th 🥺

I will bet no every month. At these odds I'm sure to win over the long term.

What do you know that I don't?

There only around 5-6% chance of amegaquake based in data from last 25 years. So betting no at 91% is a winner over the long term.

What do you know that I don't?

Study earth mini earthquakes are the appetisers (scroll down)

I hadn't seen all the preparations that Indonesia is working on and the recent events in Japan :( Thinking about closing this.

Preparing doesn't mean it will happen. In last 25 years, there's been one every 17 months on average.

I hadn't seen all the preparations that Indonesia is working on and the recent events in Japan :( Thinking about closing this.