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Summary

There is a lively debate surrounding whether Israel struck Iranian oil facilities in October. Participants are divided, citing various reports and images, with some believing that Israeli attacks caused damage at an Iranian refinery. However, there are conflicting reports from media outlets, with some indicating that Israeli forces targeted defense systems rather than oil facilities, and others pointing out that official sources have denied direct targeting of oil infrastructures. The general consensus leans towards uncertainty, given the challenges in providing conclusive evidence for a direct hit on oil facilities by Israeli forces.

  • Multiple sources, including satellite imagery and news reports from BBC and New York Times, offer conflicting evidence about the targeting and damage to Iranian oil facilities during Israeli strikes. Some claim a direct hit, while others cite denial from officials and a lack of hard evidence supporting these claims.
  • The possibility of collateral damage versus targeted strikes is central to the discussion. Despite some damage observed, the ambiguity over Israel's direct involvement or intentional targeting makes it difficult for the claims to be verified conclusively for a "YES" outcome in this market.
Comments
Adrimarket
3 weeks ago
Oil not targeted https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/14/israel-iran-strike-nuclear-oil-military/
Betwick
3 weeks ago
Leave the liquid gold out of this!
XiJinPing
1 week ago
love to bet against -$10k PnL ppl
Nancy-Pelosi
1 week ago
love to bet on events that have already happened
TheWolfOfPolymarket
1 week ago
There is overwhelming consensus that they didn't hit the oil facilities, oil is down 6% today as a result
sd2333
0 months ago
NBC: U.S. officials believe Israel has narrowed down what they will target in their response to Iran’s attack, which these officials describe as Iranian military and energy infrastructure.
SigmaBroker
3 weeks ago
Washington Post: "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed the U.S. that Israel was willing to attack Iranian military targets and not oil or nuclear facilities, according to a report in the Washington Post, quoting two officials, to avoid regional war." on ynetnews: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rk2ckbjk1e
Zaabalawi
2 weeks ago
“ Two videos have been verified that show destruction in an industrial area south of Tehran called Shamsabad. Both show premises belonging to a company named Taksaz Industrial Innovators (Tieco). The company website suggests it works with the oil and gas industry as well as in connection with agriculture and construction.”
Fyodor123
2 weeks ago
Missile fuel is not the same fuel you put in your car's tank mate
Jewbru
2 weeks ago
The IDF carried out a "kinetic strike" against fuel storage and production facilities... how is this not resolved yet?
eb..
1 week ago
"The New York Times cited Israeli officials as saying that the Abadan oil refinery was one of the sites targeted in its air strikes on Saturday morning. Iranian authorities confirmed on Saturday that Khuzestan province had been targeted by Israel."
BobMenendez
1 week ago
Don't see this going Yes in hindsight, too hard to prove even if it was contested.