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Summary

The discussion on the SpaceX Starship launches market heavily revolves around predicting the number of successful launches within 2024. Participants are debating whether upcoming launches will happen as planned due to various logistical and technical challenges, along with the already tight schedule following previous launches. Some users predicted that Flight 6 could potentially launch in mid-November, while others expressed skepticism, citing historical delays and issues with current launch infrastructure and booster preparations.

  • Divergence in opinions: Some contributors remain optimistic about the planned launch dates while others are doubtful, pointing out that historical delays and current logistical challenges make reaching the anticipated number of launches unlikely.
  • Logistical challenges: There are concerns about the state of the launch site and equipment, such as required repairs for crucial testing components, and the impact of the holiday season potentially causing further delays.
Comments
Doctorsol
1 week ago
my dad is the ceo of spacex and he said 100% 5+ launches this year
MasterMind21
5 months ago
Surely has a higher than 50% chance of getting 5 to space. We just need 3 more lunches. Elon has said he wants to ramp up launch cadence more and more for the rest of the year. I would say at minimum we get 4 more launches. Even if one of those fails and doesn’t reaches space (which seems unlikely) still 5 will have reached space by the end of the year.
LeM0
2 weeks ago
No idea what the person bellow is yapping about. Booster 13 already completed static fire testing and SpaceX officialy planning for flight 6 (4) for mid november. Static fire test: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxLAYSRJTiw . + Ship 31 for flight 6 already completed cryogenic and static fire tests earlier this year. The only roadblock for spacex is FAA however the flight plan for flight 6 was approved together with flight 5, so all they need is finish booster tests and get launch license. However based on spacex past and musks comments its completely likely that they would launch even without getting the license and just pay the fine to the FAA.
Michael-B
2 months ago
Can anyone explain to me in plain and simple terms as if I am a child, why people are still betting money on outcome '1' when there have already been two sucesful starts this year?
🤺JustPunched
0 months ago
holy shit, they did it
Bobbidy
3 weeks ago
Catching the ship requires a full orbit, but they are required to test inflight restart of Raptor engine before actually reaching orbit. So another suborbital test flight will likely happen by the end of this year.
FrreeMOney
3 weeks ago
Catching starship early next year: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1846147246124859619
GamblerGambit42
4 days ago
Just announced a potential launch date of flight 6 on November 18th
7153649820
5 months ago
IFT-1 to IFT-2: 8 months, IFT-2 to IFT-3: 5 months, IFT-3 to IFT-4: 4 months, IFT-4 to IFT-5: ? months.
nicekitty
4 months ago
FAA bud, they have almost total control over go/no-go's with their launch authorisations
MasterMind21
5 months ago
Surely has a higher than 50% chance of getting 5 to space. We just need 3 more lunches. Elon has said he wants to ramp up launch cadence more and more for the rest of the year. I would say at minimum we get 4 more launches. Even if one of those fails and doesn’t reaches space (which seems unlikely) still 5 will have reached space by the end of the year.
0xea04FcC960ACc382dd1E67f9790e55C7294aB8C2-1721595795089
2 months ago
Elon has been reliable in the past abt dates it’s really the government holding things back