Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?

A P

2 months ago

You can get June 30 end date at 3-4% in two different markets: https://polymarket.com/event/next-chancellor-of-germany and https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-part-of-next-german-government

4

PomeloEditor

2 months ago

2005: 63 days, 2009: 31 days, 2013: 86 days, 2017: only time it took above 100 days, 171 days, 2021: 73 days. The time the results were most similar to todays was 2017, as AfD rose then as well and there was a problem establishing the election. No is undervalued.

4

ToastHawaii

2 months ago

2021: 59 days | 2017: 169 days | 2013: 66 days | 2009: 29 days | 2005: 54 days

3

Aadler12345

1 month ago

SPD will push the CDU to do all kind of concessions and CDU will have to swallow them as they have no other coalition options (they excluded AFD). Very bad negotiation position for CDU, but entirely home-made mistake...

3

mcpetrus

2 months ago

you are definitely wrong. it will be very messy and take a long time.

2

Trolloftheswamp

2 months ago

It will be formed in like couple of days

mcpetrus

2 months ago

Now that the left has risen so much, I'm not so sure anymore

1

Trolloftheswamp

2 months ago

It will just be the grand colitation all over again so no sweat

SigmaTrader

2 months ago

Now it's likely that it will take less than 100 days due to SPD and CDU being able to coalition just by themselves.

1

ELONFAN4444

2 months ago

Goated, as an insider I can confirm that CSU will be very tough in any coalition talks

1

PomeloEditor

2 months ago

2005: 63 days, 2009: 31 days, 2013: 86 days, 2017: only time it took above 100 days, 171 days, 2021: 73 days. The time the results were most similar to todays was 2017, as AfD rose then as well and there was a problem establishing the election. No is undervalued.

JanMarsalek23

1 month ago

CDU SPD coalition still more likely to happen, but 96% is too optimistic. Especially because a coalitions needs also a majority within a vote of the SPD party base. They would be stupid to vote for that, on the other side stupid decisions are not out of character with SPD. No might still be a good opportunity for contrarians.

1

randomWalkingShrimp

1 month ago

Time will pass day by day, and you will find CDU and SPD acting extremely slowly. Bureaucratism and political polarization will cost Germany and the Yes holders..

1