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Summary
The discussion on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision for November 2024 is centered around the likelihood of different rate cuts and the market's response to recent economic data and predictions from financial institutions. Participants are divided on whether a 25 basis point (bps) cut or no change is more probable, with some arguing for the possibility of more significant cuts ranging from 50 to 75 bps. The discourse further reflects skepticism about larger cuts, highlighting the uncertainty in market predictions, even as tools like the CME FedWatch indicate an expectation of a 25 bps cut. There is ongoing debate about the potential market impact, including reactions to inflation, economic data, and geopolitical events.
- There is considerable speculation and division over the magnitude of the potential rate cut, with the majority anticipating a 25 bps cut, influenced by recent CPI data and expectations from major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America.
- Discussion involves analysis of tools and data sources assessing probabilities, such as CME FedWatch, and highlights differing perspectives on how traders and platforms interpret these probabilities in relation to broader market sentiments and external economic factors.
Comments
aldynspeedruns
3 days ago
u can't lose, u have no position
13
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Liked by n/a, n/a and 11 others
Suizy
3 days ago
I don't want to lose
aldynspeedruns
3 weeks ago
BOFA deez nuts
5
n/a
3 weeks ago
BOFA predicts 75bps cut
Car
1 week ago
its so over for 50BPS holders (justifax was one of them)
4
n/a
3 weeks ago
475-500 a 33% for 9/18, and at 34.5% for 11/7 = 11.4% for no change, huge mispricing and a lot of money to make
2
hullen
2 weeks ago
25+ bps increase-winner
2
aldynspeedruns
2 weeks ago
GME to the moon
2
PolyToni
2 weeks ago
50bps leads on CME
coinfucius
2 weeks ago
wait til the GDP came in at below and see whether 75 bps is still off the table..
2
Luxury
2 weeks ago
thanks
2
Warracks
2 weeks ago
There is a move to play, increase of 0,25bp is so underrated. I am not saying that it will be 0,25 increase but with the sentiment on the market it can be possible that during the following weeks the market can think about it. The Fed could raise rates by 0.25 points at the next meeting if inflation remains above 3%, still far from its 2% target, and unemployment stays low at around 3.8%. This increase would also help curb the sharp rise in wages, which have grown by 4.4% over the past year, to prevent further price pressures and maintain sustainable economic balance.
aldynspeedruns
2 weeks ago
ain't no way
2
Warracks
2 weeks ago
There is a move to play, increase of 0,25bp is so underrated. I am not saying that it will be 0,25 increase but with the sentiment on the market it can be possible that during the following weeks the market can think about it. The Fed could raise rates by 0.25 points at the next meeting if inflation remains above 3%, still far from its 2% target, and unemployment stays low at around 3.8%. This increase would also help curb the sharp rise in wages, which have grown by 4.4% over the past year, to prevent further price pressures and maintain sustainable economic balance.
Justifax
1 week ago
car trying to pump and dump the fed. now i've seen it all.
2