Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election? | Polymarket Tracker

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Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Last updated 1 year ago

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Summary

The discussion centers around the perceived value and dynamics of an election betting market involving Trump and Harris, with participants critiquing irrational betting behavior, especially among Trump supporters. There is significant debate around whether current odds reflect the actual probabilities of the candidates winning, and participants express skepticism about the rationality of MAGA bettors affecting market value. Concerns about market manipulation and discrepancies between different betting platforms are also prominent, with several individuals discussing strategies for arbitrage and potential market manipulation.

Participants express skepticism about the low odds for Harris and suggest this is due to non-rational betting behavior in the market, particularly by Trump supporters.
There are concerns about market manipulation and the potential for arbitrage due to differing odds and liquidity between various betting platforms.

Comments

We need a second derivative market: who will be favorite in this market two days before Election Day.

Liked by n/a, n/a and 15 others

CookieMonster562678

we need a betting market on who the favorite in this betting market will be the day before the day before election day

Liked by n/a, asdf4 and 11 others

I'd assume the other would win by default as they'd be the favourite

ImHereForTheRewards

I think the Rules need to clarify what happens in case any of the two drops before the election

WTF is this market lmao perfect recipe for some last minute market manipulation fuckery should be entertaining to see some idiots blow through a shot done of $

if you're cookingnow... then you're not really a good chef!

we're cooking now

If trump goes on rogan and drops hard r 100 times he'd still be favored

What's weird is calling your own blog post 'excellent'.

Actually, that's no true. From this excellent blog post: "from a broader market perspecitve: imagine Kamala has a 52% chance to win, but the odds don’t move much, so you can estimate that one day before the election the probability of her winning will still be 52% with a 70% probability. Then one market should have 52%, and the other 70%." https://polymarketblogger.wordpress.com/home/food-for-thought/why-it-makes-sense-for-the-polymarket-to-have-different-odds-for-options/

but what if they both dropped at the same time. They divorce their spouses, marry each other, and collectively cause the US to finally break apart.

I'd assume the other would win by default as they'd be the favourite

there's always another flip

This market seems super ripe for manipulation. Assuming a close election, it is possible for highrollers to tip odds just a bit in the initial market, which could win them big bucks in this market