CA-13 election: Gray (D) vs. Duarte (R)

bko

7 months ago

Last dump in Merced 657 ballots, 58% Gray (D), 42% Duarte (R). Stanislaus 677 ballots 54% Gray (D), 46% Duarte (R). Estimated ballots left in Merced went down by 2297, more than the 657 posted, good for Duarte. Estimated left in Stanislaus went up by 599, good for Gray. If trends continue, it looks like Gray will win by about 350 votes. 104,775 Gray, 104,428 Duarte. Just my dumb spreadsheet stuff. Bet however you like.

6

FBInformationsider

7 months ago

The most bipolar market in history

5

Szty1

7 months ago

Lol so the next update from the two counties that will decide this (Merced and Stanislaus) is next Tuesday. Seriously people, you need to elect better lawmakers, this is beyond ridiculous.

4

JJMORSON

7 months ago

My spreadsheet for the remaining ~27500 votes says: Duarte needs 46.4% of the remaining votes to win. Gray needs 53.6.. just depends if you really believe that the "late ballots" are going to lean about 8% relatively more democrat than the existing ballots

4

MasterZeon

7 months ago

Next Ballot drops estimates from CA SOS: San Joaquin: 11/18/24 7:00 PM PST Stanislaus: 11/19/24 6:00 PM PST Merced: 11/19/24 5:00 PM PST Madera: 11/20/24 5:00 PM PST Fresno: November 18, 2024 before 5:00 PM PST See: https://www.fresnocountyca.gov/Departments/County-ClerkRegistrar-of-Voters/Elections https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status

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itsfine

6 months ago

Good now

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UndefeatedElectionForecaster

7 months ago

How are we doing Gray guys, haven't checked in on this in a while

SpeedTracer

6 months ago

Then why did Duarte win last time in an equally close election?/

4

bldr411

6 months ago

Dems cheat right in your face.

Comebackkid

7 months ago

Duarte will win, he's a known RINO, sell while you can

3

FBInformationsider

6 months ago

Dems always find a way to steal close elections

3

BigRobin

7 months ago

total vote counting 130,000 vote left 100,000 , last year wining vote difference was 700 , if one percent change in vote can make anybody win. And remember its a democratic leaning area . so its very tough . very risky

2

Hendrickus

7 months ago

This market is very illiquid, duarte is leading with less than 30% of the votes left. His odds should be at least 40%, possibly 60%. Unbelievable that few peple are betting here.