BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? | Polymarket Tracker

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BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

Last updated 2 months ago

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Summary

In the discussion about the potential for BSW to win 5% or more of the vote in the German election, there are varied opinions based on differences in polling data. Some participants point out that certain polls suggest BSW could secure between 6-7% of the vote, while others have them just above or below the threshold at 3%. This variance leads to uncertainty and differing predictions about BSW's election performance.

Polls are showing inconsistent results, with some predicting above the 5% threshold and others below it.
The uncertainty in polling creates varied opinions on BSW's chances of success in the election.

Comments

Sarah Wagenknecht flies on a broom what the fuck, breaking news

This is actually a coin flip lol

BREAKING: ABOUT 2 MILLION VOTES OUTSTANDING FEOM KALINIGRAD

aus demokratischer Perspektive irgendwie krass, dass jetzt alle Stimmen von denen verloren sind, weil 0.02% fehlt

Polls: BSW got 4.7 in Mannheim, 3.7 in Viersen und 3.2 in Flensburg. Its gg.

im killing myself

It's so over. I'm not sure for which side it's over. But for that side, it's so over

Breaking: Mannheim bombed by Putin

Y'all got no idea, easy win

Amateurs. It's an easy No because opinion polls always inflate for the minor parties. When the actual election comes, there's strategic voting to ensure the government has a strong mandate, and with AfD surging, many who claimed they are for BSW will go to AfD opponents. Look up the last election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_German_federal_election. That's before accounting for the liberal bias in responses as there is a shy right-wing voter effect. Look at Linke last election in the link: they were 6-9% in EVERY SINGLE OPINION POLL, but at the election they got 4.9%. Same thing will happen but even more safer with 4%-6% dropping easily to 3% since people are even less confident they will break into the Bundestag and thus strategically not waste their vote and spend it on enemy parties of AfD.