AfD % of vote in German Election? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion around the betting market for the AfD's percentage of the vote in the German election focuses heavily on skepticism regarding poll reliability and predictions of the party's performance. The consensus in the discussion leans towards an anticipated vote share of 20-22%, with some participants suggesting that a higher performance, suggested by certain polls, could be overhyped or manipulated. There is a noted trend of poll data generally indicating a downtrend or stabilization around the 20% mark, although recent political issues such as migration and international relations might impact voter sentiment.

Most participants agree that current polling data shows AfD's vote share stabilizing around 20%, with some predicting it might land between 17-19%.
There is a strong debate over poll accuracy, with accusations of manipulations and misrepresentations, particularly concerning unusually high vote share predictions in some circulated polls.

Comments

So, Forsa ist fertig runtergeladen

We are living in hell here in Germany, thank you x thank you elon for the help. Germany submits the highest number of legal demands for user data to X within the European Union, with ~87% of these requests targeting speech-related offenses. X believes that these legal demands for user data are unlawful and has taken cases in both German federal and state courts challenging the lawfulness of the government's overreach into our users’ privacy and freedom of expression.

"Our goal is... to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York... by the end of next year." Elon Musk 16.10.2016

"Only the AfD can save Germany" - Elon Musk (20.12.2024)

Aufwachen, Deutschland! Lasst unsere Vorfahren nicht in Schande weinen. Ihr werdet gerade erobert.

"Only the AfD can save Germany" - Elon Musk (20.12.2024)

bobtschigerillo999

Don't let yourselves get fooled by people holding $5 worth or none of this. I am German and the AfD situation in Germany is exactly the same as with Trump. Polling in this situation is useless or inaccurate because people that vote the controversial option will hesitate to tell you this because of being stigmatized as weird, right-wing or nazi. This goes as far as state employees like police officers being threatened to lose their jobs if they are active members of the party like in thueringen. The facts are the following: 1. The Youth overwhelmingly votes AfD. 2. Every big migrant group in Germany like Turks, Poles or Russians vote AfD because the left ideologies go against their core beliefs ("there are a hundreds of genders"). 3. Migrantion is the biggest problem in germany currently (and i say that as a kid of migrants) and nobody believes that any of the old parties including the CDU will actually do anything about it. At the end of the day, vote what you believe in, don't listen to trolls having no funds at all or $5 worth here to post complete bs. And for those wondering: Happy to lose it all. This is peanuts and i will be putting in more as we get closer to the election. You're free to take my "free money" by betting against it :)

I am a Polymarket critic who trashes everything but never places a bet. I'm like a backseat driver who knows all the best routes but won't touch the steering wheel, spending my days commenting with the fervor of a sports commentator at a silent chess match. Who am I?

25-30% is pure rightwing schizofrenia and i love it

Ey immer diese australischen Austauschstudenden... Jetzt hat schon wieder einer von denen ein paar Leute ueberfahren.

Germany has become so unattractive to live in. Who would like to pay record high taxes, for low public security and selfhating lefties throwing sh*t into your face...