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Will there be another debate?
notyourmothersmarket
3 weeks ago
yeah Trump has never said one thing and done another. This bet is over.
Caligulas.dog
3 weeks ago
So that should resolve the bet
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
I gave ChatGPT two pieces of information -- the title and rules of the market, and the WSJ article. I did not give it any further prompts to tilt it in any direction. This is how it assessed the market (which I agree with): "Based on the rules you've provided for the prediction market, this market should resolve to "No." The article states that Israeli special forces have conducted small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon, but these operations do not meet the criteria outlined in your market's rules. Specifically, the rules indicate that only "ground operations involving troops on Lebanese soil for combat operations" will count, and aerial and maritime operations are excluded. Since the article does not confirm that these operations qualify as a broader ground incursion or involve troops in combat operations, and considering the market's resolution criteria relies on official confirmations from Hezbollah and Israel, there hasn't been a definitive entry of Israeli forces for combat operations as specified. Therefore, the conclusion would be "No.""
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Apsalar
1 day ago
The Lebanese people are singing in the streets now that it has been confirmed that they weren't invaded last month.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
2 days ago
Imagine we get good evidence tomorrow that Trump said "mog" six weeks ago. A video surfaces that no one saw during the last P4 decision. Nobody would argue we ignore that evidence simply because it came out before the last P4 decision. The only difference here is some old time users bought No shares in this case before doing any research.
Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?
Bobigazda
1 week ago
I'm working on it... Have patience
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
3 days ago
I see the argument for No know: "all arguments for yes should be thrown out on a technicality". I don't think Uma is going to be hoodwinked that easily. You have no substantive arguments for No. We yes bros have endless high-quality sources suggesting the invasion began in September.
What will Kamala say during Nevada speech?
ItCantBeTrollBoy
1 week ago
Can you Google it and let us know?
efren1983
1 week ago
what times is this event
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Have I lost my lost my mind? What is the evidence they invaded? IDF says no invasion, AP says they didn't see any troops cross the border, and Hezbollah says they didn't invade.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
3 days ago
Let me rejoin the fight by bringing it back to 50/50 parity and acquiring a nice 10k shares to participate in this glorious reconquest
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
2 days ago
Tie me to a missile and fire it at UMA. I am ready
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
denizz
3 days ago
We’ve established that the Israeli ground operation started September 30 (100%), and that it intended to control territory by early October (97% so far). So, did the operational plans change, or did Israel already intend to control territory on September 30? The argument against intent to control on September 30 originates largely from Israel’s ongoing public claims about the operation, which we have already discounted. Meanwhile, on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30. Finally, it should be noted that Israel’s national security cabinet approved the plan for the ground operation on September 30, and there have been no amendments since then to their authorization. The weight of evidence points strongly towards operational control being planned from the start of the operation. A decision of NO for this market would be anti-empirical and anti-common sense.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
4 days ago
For what it's worth, chatGPT is on yes side now : https://x.com/Ragnarok_1er/status/1842063415692443663
Who will win the debate according to polls?
Dark.Brandon
3 weeks ago
Let's all call a spade a spade - trump is mentally retarded. I don't say this as a slur. This is a medical diagnostics. Sorry.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Mountainman
5 days ago
All market rules on this site going forward should be as follows: “This market will resolve to "Yes” if JustKen and his group of cronies decide that is what suits them best, if not they will choose No. Objective reality is not relevant”
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
3 days ago
This market will inevitably resolve to Yes, since “Before November” has been resolved to yes, and the invasion started at 30th of September *ET time*
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
2 days ago
Just waking up here. Is Team No's argument still that the offensive which commenced Monday night is not the same one that continued Tuesday morning, based on zero evidence whatsoever?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
144
5 days ago
So I just now bought these 2.7k shares it’s clear to me it was an invasion per the rules. I understand the controversy but I’m going to assume that this is going to resolve correctly despite was so,e of the naysayers and other people are saying about the possibly biased voting mechanism (which I do not understand. I’m new to this site). Seems like the controversy was cleared up officially now. For me it is a good test to see if Polymarket rules resolutions can be trusted to stay true to English and logic
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
4 days ago
Every media outlet was expecting an invasion, to which the widely reported incursion began on September. 30, and what today's context concretely confirms was the start of an offensive to control territory.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
TheGoober
3 days ago
Israel entering lebanon market resolved YES. Israel invasion before November market resolved YES. Therefore this market should resolve YES by proxy
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
2 days ago
The calm before the storm. Our time in this market is drawing to a close, and I am glad that everyone has remained cordial and friends.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
n/a
2 weeks ago
I want everyone to win (both yes and no holders)... everyone except @mountainman, amen
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
wanyewest69
3 weeks ago
guys kamla gonna loose
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
This is NOT over. Hezbollah is attempting to locate his limbs, glue him back together, and reanimate him.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
1 week ago
Gentlemen, its been a pleasure.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
6 days ago
Check the UMA Discord history for "Israel military action against Iran by End of 2024". 50 Pence, aenews and Car made the exact same assumptions and claims as in this case. And they lost, because their claims are bogus. This isn’t their first rodeo.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
5 days ago
STOP THE COUNT!!!!!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Darkpsico
3 days ago
If november is yes, september too ofc. It started the 30 sept lol
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
3 days ago
Your friendly reminder that: "The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi"... "Egoz Commander Lt. Col. "A" told the troops right before going in, "We have a great honor to write history in the North just like we did in Gaza. We started with lower-grade operations, but today, we are starting a more substantial invasion in order to return the northern residents to their homes. This is a substantial matter because we have not invaded Lebanon since 2006." https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
50-Pence
2 days ago
Good Evening Frens. Lots of disagreement and fighting. Lets just remember, no matter what happens, these truths we hold to be self-evident: if your side loses this was rigged and if your side wins you are a scammer.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
1 week ago
The elephant in the room: information after the dispute in this market does not count (UMA said so). Since this market was disputed yesterday morning already, any new information does not consider. So the only question is, does "intelligence gathering" imply "forces entering Lebanese soil for combat operations"? Definitely not.
What will Trump say during North Carolina speech?
n/a
2 weeks ago
You are just throwing your money he never says it
n/a
2 weeks ago
I'll risk $25 to make $500. At least ir may pump .10 beforehand i can sell for $50 profit
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Apsalar
6 days ago
Buying Walz solely because many of the people buying Vance seem to be doing so for very dumb reasons
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
crim
1 week ago
I'm cooked.
Will Trump say a slur during the debate?
n/a
0 months ago
The rules not having a list of words is retarded.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
1 week ago
I may not be Hezbollah, but im here to terrorise your wallet
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
MediaConsensusForThee
4 days ago
Chad thinks he's going to make big bucks because he's betting on an event that has de facto happened. What a naive guy, he's here on an anonymous crypto scam site
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
3 days ago
So let’s assume Yes wins in the November market, as it’s overwhelmingly doing it right now (currently 91/9). It means there is indeed an invasion with intent of control. Is there any No September defender who can tell us when this invasion started in their view?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
3 days ago
Domer and his scam squad are actively trying to pretend the November market isn’t about to resolve to YES. Don’t believe anything this guy says.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
3 days ago
No bros, save your money. This is a wrap. What are you guys even arguing here? We have all kinds of evidence the ground invasion began on September 30th. And the Israeli Commander of the North himself said of the motive: "Gordin, according to the Israel Hayom daily, has recommended in recent closed-door meetings that the IDF be given the green light to seize and occupy a buffer zone in southern Lebanon."
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
MediaConsensusForThee
3 days ago
Currently, Y is trading significantly higher than N. Y was traded at nearly 90 cents on September 30/October 1. It was only UMA that caused the price drop. This means that, in addition to the media consensus, there was also a market consensus. And now UMA is supposed to override this market and media consensus? That cannot be right
Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?
Axios
1 week ago
Here are the facts: 1) If Russia captures an area and then it is recaptured, it will be shaded blue 2) The area of interest is not shaded blue and is not shaded red thus has never been and is not currently controlled by Russia.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
KimJeongPoon
6 days ago
It’s hilarious when democrats lose outright they start calling for a 50/50 split.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
n/a
1 day ago
I just called Ipsos customer service and asked when the VP poll would be released and they said "sir this is a Wendy's"
What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?
n/a
1 week ago
LIKE if car is an asshole
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
n/a
3 weeks ago
ZioLion please take this to twitter lmao
Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?
n/a
3 weeks ago
You bragged.
n/a
3 weeks ago
what went wrong?
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
TheGuru
3 weeks ago
Thanks for the big position, the main presidential market is overestimating Trump currently, the market should adjust soon. If it doesn't I'll make it adjust myself
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
UmaMustBeStoppedAtAllCosts
5 days ago
Just found out a few important things. And wow is it important! Turns out Israel, Lebanon, and the UN all said that these were raids not an invasion. Also after looking through polymarket I found an entirely separate market which was intended for these raids and incursions. Wild! Turns out this market was a NO all along. Would have been helpful if anyone mentioned this earlier and repeatedly
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
jeterl
3 days ago
We made it boys, looks like UMA is voting yes on the November market.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
3 days ago
Look, pumping the No price rather than making sound arguments is a strategy. But, maybe not the best one?
Last update on October 8, 2024, 7:53 PM ET
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