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Pavel Durov released in August?
adhoc-king
1 month ago
Like if you believe car is an asshole
Will there be another debate?
notyourmothersmarket
3 weeks ago
yeah Trump has never said one thing and done another. This bet is over.
Caligulas.dog
3 weeks ago
So that should resolve the bet
Trump and Harris shake hands at first debate?
AugustoPinochet73
1 month ago
Done 100 simulations with AI, 2 times without debate, 10 times they shake hands, 87 times they don't shake hands and 1 they shake hands and instantly melt into one person. Do what you want with this info
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
I gave ChatGPT two pieces of information -- the title and rules of the market, and the WSJ article. I did not give it any further prompts to tilt it in any direction. This is how it assessed the market (which I agree with): "Based on the rules you've provided for the prediction market, this market should resolve to "No." The article states that Israeli special forces have conducted small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon, but these operations do not meet the criteria outlined in your market's rules. Specifically, the rules indicate that only "ground operations involving troops on Lebanese soil for combat operations" will count, and aerial and maritime operations are excluded. Since the article does not confirm that these operations qualify as a broader ground incursion or involve troops in combat operations, and considering the market's resolution criteria relies on official confirmations from Hezbollah and Israel, there hasn't been a definitive entry of Israeli forces for combat operations as specified. Therefore, the conclusion would be "No.""
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Imho this was a clear No and UMA likely would've voted it No if it was disputed, and the clarification is ridiculous
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
50-Pence
1 month ago
Are you not entertained?
What price will $BTC reach in July?
gopfan
2 months ago
I heard you have to bet to get some money
1414231
2 months ago
The Trump speech on 27th should easily make BTC go way past $70k even around $75k possibly, thanks for the free money!
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
2 months ago
⬇️ "i have no clue whats going on" button
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
1 day ago
The Lebanese people are singing in the streets now that it has been confirmed that they weren't invaded last month.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
anon1565
1 month ago
I was a yes holder before the speech with 55,000 shares. However, as the speech concluded, I was 100% certain given the present rules that he had not dropped out While I had been a Yes voter previously, the quote: "I want everyone to know that I am not terminating my campaign. I am simply suspending it and - NOT ENDING IT. My name will remain on the ballot in most states... I encourage you to vote for me! And if enough of you vote for me and neither of the major party candidates wins 270 votes, which is quite possible... I could conceivably still end up in the White House in a contingential election." made it iron tight for me that he was not dropping out. I asked chatgpt and a lawyer friend to confirm what I had heard, and they agreed. I read and re-read the rules over and over again to confirm I was correct. Given I had the information I needed, and after the speech ended, I bought 175,000 No shares. The market agreed with me, trading all the way down to .29c for yes. After I bought these shares, Polymarket posts additional context where they decide the entire speech is invalid, especially the full paragraph I quoted, and instead conjoin 2 inconclusive small quotes. I am positive an unbiased judge, lawyer, llm, uma, or anyone else would rule in Nos favor.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
2 days ago
Imagine we get good evidence tomorrow that Trump said "mog" six weeks ago. A video surfaces that no one saw during the last P4 decision. Nobody would argue we ignore that evidence simply because it came out before the last P4 decision. The only difference here is some old time users bought No shares in this case before doing any research.
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
n/a
2 months ago
You know PnL is public right?
n/a
2 months ago
is this where 🤡 DUMFAG DECRAPP 🤡 LOSES $1000 every day, or is that merely the Trump Mention markets where the SACK of SHIT DECRAP, loses oodles of dollars every day? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Airdrops by September 30?
Car
3 months ago
What about Polymarket Airdrop
2024 July hottest on record?
JeffreyBezos
2 months ago
hello I am the Owner of NASA back again after my last update. I just wanted to let you all know I checked the records again and it is still going to be settle at NO. you are all welcome
Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?
Bobigazda
1 week ago
I'm working on it... Have patience
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
3 days ago
I see the argument for No know: "all arguments for yes should be thrown out on a technicality". I don't think Uma is going to be hoodwinked that easily. You have no substantive arguments for No. We yes bros have endless high-quality sources suggesting the invasion began in September.
What will Kamala say during Nevada speech?
ItCantBeTrollBoy
1 week ago
Can you Google it and let us know?
n/a
1 week ago
what times is this event
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Have I lost my lost my mind? What is the evidence they invaded? IDF says no invasion, AP says they didn't see any troops cross the border, and Hezbollah says they didn't invade.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
HaterzLoserz
3 days ago
Let me rejoin the fight by bringing it back to 50/50 parity and acquiring a nice 10k shares to participate in this glorious reconquest
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
2 days ago
Tie me to a missile and fire it at UMA. I am ready
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?
nola72324
2 months ago
Polymarket should make it so that a death does not result in a yes in these types of markets
Will Taylor Swift endorse Kamala Harris?
AugustoPinochet73
1 month ago
Just to be sure, what if Taylor endorses Kamala but keeps running in non swing states?
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
johmot
1 month ago
Like my comment if Car is a scammer🛑
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
denizz
4 days ago
We’ve established that the Israeli ground operation started September 30 (100%), and that it intended to control territory by early October (97% so far). So, did the operational plans change, or did Israel already intend to control territory on September 30? The argument against intent to control on September 30 originates largely from Israel’s ongoing public claims about the operation, which we have already discounted. Meanwhile, on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30. Finally, it should be noted that Israel’s national security cabinet approved the plan for the ground operation on September 30, and there have been no amendments since then to their authorization. The weight of evidence points strongly towards operational control being planned from the start of the operation. A decision of NO for this market would be anti-empirical and anti-common sense.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
ManL
2 months ago
Bro, in Venezuela those are the life savings
Nebule
2 months ago
why don't you bet your life savings then ?
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
person1
2 months ago
As a Venezuelan, I and am very disappointed by this market. I read the fine print carefully– particularly “the primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Venezuela” – and concluded that this bet was about who the regime’s Electoral Authority (CNE) would announce as the winner. This reading was consistent with Maduro trading at ~80 cents, which “priced in” that Venezuela’s institutions are stacked in Chavismo’s favor and are very likely to declare Maduro winner regardless of what happened on election day. This market was a hedge for me. I knew Maduro would be announced winner, and that my family will continue to be screwed by his incompetence and corruption for years to come. So I bet Maduro YES to recover some money from that depressing prospect. The Electoral Authority has now declared twice that Maduro is the winner. First on July 29th with “80%” of the votes counted, and then again on Aug 2nd with “96.87% of the votes counted” and 51.95% Maduro, 43.18% Gonzalez, a mathematically irreversible result. And yet this market has not resolved. I do not understand this. My hope is that once Venezuela’s Supreme Court looks at the supposed “evidence” that the Electoral Authority and all candidates have submitted and makes a “verdict” – once again affirming Maduro the winner – that the market will finally resolve Maduro YES, as it should have two days ago.
Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?
Merriman07
2 months ago
Vote No: the argument for No is actually quite straight forward and doesn't require nitpicking at all. The BTC community dreams about the government/central bank holding BTC like they hold gold to support the currency. Kennedy announced exactly that saying he would buy 4 Million BTC as a strategic reserve. Then the US would hold same proportion of all BTC as it does of gold. Trump was very careful to say no such thing. He only said the 200k BTC that law enforcement confiscated should not be sold. If you look at the video you can see that he doesn't want to say reserve - because the rational and scale for that is completely different. That No is correct you can also see by the reaction of the BTC price and community, who was really hoping for the reserve commitment and didn't get it.
Democratic VP nominee on election day?
Rafin
2 months ago
What are these dumbass markets?
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Hey dummy, you've found the most frictionless place on the planet to bet on interest rates.
n/a
1 month ago
This is a funny market. There are a million ways to bet on interest rates with way less friction than a crypto exchange. This place is 100% people insider trading ex cons lol
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
0xD11e
1 month ago
If she says "I demand unburdened abortions for weird monkeypox jews in the context of inflation three plus times", then I suspect the speechwriter is betting here.
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
DJD22
1 month ago
I delete my comment and pretend I never said anything
Car
1 month ago
And when she says it 0 times?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
4 days ago
For what it's worth, chatGPT is on yes side now : https://x.com/Ragnarok_1er/status/1842063415692443663
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
n/a
2 months ago
Denying reality is the first step towards starting to lose money. The official result is on the scoreboard. The Presidents of Russia and China are congratulating Maduro on his victory. What is there to talk about? That the US, which wants to control oil supplies in the region, is pressuring Maduro and making statements that the elections were not fair? Or that the opposition politician does not acknowledge his defeat? Guys, even Trump didn't acknowledge his defeat in 2020. But the result is on the scoreboard.
Will Biden finish his term?
pooypoopoo
3 months ago
If Joe doesnt finish this term then i am gay
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
factman
1 month ago
THIS WAS THE MOST INTENSE WOMEN'S BASKETBALL GAME I HAVE EVER SEEN (and also the first one)
Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
I'm pretty neutral on this one. I think what Lummis proposed is definitely a strategic reserve -- you buy bitcoin and hold it. What Trump proposed -- that they not sell seized Bitcoin and stockpile it -- is definitely not what Lummis is proposing. And what Trump proposed is not how the US currently operates our petroleum strategic reserve (whereas Lummis is proposing something extremely similar to the petroleum strategic reserve). However, given all of that, Polymarket has been throwing out their rules and siding with the "vibes" of a market regardless of whether it is correct or not. And the vibes here is that Trump announced something similar to a reserve, so it's probably unlikely that a dispute would win. It's really unfortunate that Polymarket is going down the path of throwing out the truth in favor of vibes, but that is their decision.
Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?
Bernardo
2 months ago
I don't have stakes on this one, but seeing this resolution drastically reduces Polymarket reliability for me....
Trump vs. Biden: Staircase Olympics
n/a
2 months ago
The slow news season, also known as the “silly season,” typically occurs during the late summer months (August and September) in the Northern Hemisphere. During this period, there is often a lack of significant news events, leading to a decrease in serious reporting and an increase in lighthearted or trivial stories dominating the media.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
yeamon
1 month ago
RFK's statement today on how voters should vote: "We're going to stay on the ballot in 30 states and I'm encouraging people to vote for me in those states." In no universe would any good faith reasonable person conclude that an explicit call for voters to NOT vote for Trump for president satisfies an endorsement of Trump for president. RFK has clearly stated his support for Trump while also clearly stating the endorsement of his own presidential bid. This is not complicated. I don't endorse drinking your own pee but I support anyone who wants to drink their pee if that makes them happy. I endorse drinking water. Words matter, rules matter, and Poly/UMA need to do the right thing and P4 this or refund everyone. "Yes" is clear cut THEFT.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
hillary2win
1 month ago
A good captain goes down with the ship. And in this case i was a good captain
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?
JamesBond
1 month ago
You're telling me all i need to do is fly to Africa and get monkey pox for an easy win
Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?
KamalaCurry
1 month ago
Will "Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?" go under 50% in August?
Who will win the debate according to polls?
Dark.Brandon
3 weeks ago
Let's all call a spade a spade - trump is mentally retarded. I don't say this as a slur. This is a medical diagnostics. Sorry.
What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?
BigBazoo
1 month ago
You might be a lil confused mate this is the Wisconsin rally market
n/a
1 month ago
explain tampon to me, you think he is really going to mention a females product at a presidential debate with a female?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Mountainman
5 days ago
All market rules on this site going forward should be as follows: “This market will resolve to "Yes” if JustKen and his group of cronies decide that is what suits them best, if not they will choose No. Objective reality is not relevant”
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
3 days ago
This market will inevitably resolve to Yes, since “Before November” has been resolved to yes, and the invasion started at 30th of September *ET time*
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
2 days ago
Just waking up here. Is Team No's argument still that the offensive which commenced Monday night is not the same one that continued Tuesday morning, based on zero evidence whatsoever?
Democratic Nominee 2024
FRH01591
2 months ago
Class action suit anyone?
2024 July hottest on record?
JeffreyBezos
2 months ago
hello this is the owner of NASA and I came to tell you that this will settle No and July 2024 will be the second hottest July after July 2023. I have to get back to work now but I saw all of you are arguing to I came to help
Trump vs. Biden: Staircase Olympics
Car
2 months ago
THIS IS WHY POLYMARKET IS THE BEST SITE!
Last update on October 8, 2024, 9:43 PM ET
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