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Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Apsalar
1 day ago
The Lebanese people are singing in the streets now that it has been confirmed that they weren't invaded last month.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
2 days ago
Imagine we get good evidence tomorrow that Trump said "mog" six weeks ago. A video surfaces that no one saw during the last P4 decision. Nobody would argue we ignore that evidence simply because it came out before the last P4 decision. The only difference here is some old time users bought No shares in this case before doing any research.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
3 days ago
I see the argument for No know: "all arguments for yes should be thrown out on a technicality". I don't think Uma is going to be hoodwinked that easily. You have no substantive arguments for No. We yes bros have endless high-quality sources suggesting the invasion began in September.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
3 days ago
Let me rejoin the fight by bringing it back to 50/50 parity and acquiring a nice 10k shares to participate in this glorious reconquest
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
2 days ago
Tie me to a missile and fire it at UMA. I am ready
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
denizz
3 days ago
We’ve established that the Israeli ground operation started September 30 (100%), and that it intended to control territory by early October (97% so far). So, did the operational plans change, or did Israel already intend to control territory on September 30? The argument against intent to control on September 30 originates largely from Israel’s ongoing public claims about the operation, which we have already discounted. Meanwhile, on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30. Finally, it should be noted that Israel’s national security cabinet approved the plan for the ground operation on September 30, and there have been no amendments since then to their authorization. The weight of evidence points strongly towards operational control being planned from the start of the operation. A decision of NO for this market would be anti-empirical and anti-common sense.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
4 days ago
For what it's worth, chatGPT is on yes side now : https://x.com/Ragnarok_1er/status/1842063415692443663
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Mountainman
5 days ago
All market rules on this site going forward should be as follows: “This market will resolve to "Yes” if JustKen and his group of cronies decide that is what suits them best, if not they will choose No. Objective reality is not relevant”
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
3 days ago
This market will inevitably resolve to Yes, since “Before November” has been resolved to yes, and the invasion started at 30th of September *ET time*
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
2 days ago
Just waking up here. Is Team No's argument still that the offensive which commenced Monday night is not the same one that continued Tuesday morning, based on zero evidence whatsoever?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
144
5 days ago
So I just now bought these 2.7k shares it’s clear to me it was an invasion per the rules. I understand the controversy but I’m going to assume that this is going to resolve correctly despite was so,e of the naysayers and other people are saying about the possibly biased voting mechanism (which I do not understand. I’m new to this site). Seems like the controversy was cleared up officially now. For me it is a good test to see if Polymarket rules resolutions can be trusted to stay true to English and logic
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
4 days ago
Every media outlet was expecting an invasion, to which the widely reported incursion began on September. 30, and what today's context concretely confirms was the start of an offensive to control territory.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
TheGoober
3 days ago
Israel entering lebanon market resolved YES. Israel invasion before November market resolved YES. Therefore this market should resolve YES by proxy
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
2 days ago
The calm before the storm. Our time in this market is drawing to a close, and I am glad that everyone has remained cordial and friends.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
n/a
6 days ago
Walz lied about china, lied about border crossings, said he is friends with school shooters. Yeah he'll definitely win in the polls
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
6 days ago
Check the UMA Discord history for "Israel military action against Iran by End of 2024". 50 Pence, aenews and Car made the exact same assumptions and claims as in this case. And they lost, because their claims are bogus. This isn’t their first rodeo.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
5 days ago
STOP THE COUNT!!!!!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Darkpsico
3 days ago
If november is yes, september too ofc. It started the 30 sept lol
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
3 days ago
Your friendly reminder that: "The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi"... "Egoz Commander Lt. Col. "A" told the troops right before going in, "We have a great honor to write history in the North just like we did in Gaza. We started with lower-grade operations, but today, we are starting a more substantial invasion in order to return the northern residents to their homes. This is a substantial matter because we have not invaded Lebanon since 2006." https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
50-Pence
2 days ago
Good Evening Frens. Lots of disagreement and fighting. Lets just remember, no matter what happens, these truths we hold to be self-evident: if your side loses this was rigged and if your side wins you are a scammer.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Apsalar
6 days ago
Buying Walz solely because many of the people buying Vance seem to be doing so for very dumb reasons
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
MediaConsensusForThee
4 days ago
Chad thinks he's going to make big bucks because he's betting on an event that has de facto happened. What a naive guy, he's here on an anonymous crypto scam site
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
3 days ago
So let’s assume Yes wins in the November market, as it’s overwhelmingly doing it right now (currently 91/9). It means there is indeed an invasion with intent of control. Is there any No September defender who can tell us when this invasion started in their view?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
3 days ago
Domer and his scam squad are actively trying to pretend the November market isn’t about to resolve to YES. Don’t believe anything this guy says.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
3 days ago
No bros, save your money. This is a wrap. What are you guys even arguing here? We have all kinds of evidence the ground invasion began on September 30th. And the Israeli Commander of the North himself said of the motive: "Gordin, according to the Israel Hayom daily, has recommended in recent closed-door meetings that the IDF be given the green light to seize and occupy a buffer zone in southern Lebanon."
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
MediaConsensusForThee
3 days ago
Currently, Y is trading significantly higher than N. Y was traded at nearly 90 cents on September 30/October 1. It was only UMA that caused the price drop. This means that, in addition to the media consensus, there was also a market consensus. And now UMA is supposed to override this market and media consensus? That cannot be right
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
KimJeongPoon
6 days ago
It’s hilarious when democrats lose outright they start calling for a 50/50 split.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
n/a
1 day ago
I just called Ipsos customer service and asked when the VP poll would be released and they said "sir this is a Wendy's"
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
UmaMustBeStoppedAtAllCosts
5 days ago
Just found out a few important things. And wow is it important! Turns out Israel, Lebanon, and the UN all said that these were raids not an invasion. Also after looking through polymarket I found an entirely separate market which was intended for these raids and incursions. Wild! Turns out this market was a NO all along. Would have been helpful if anyone mentioned this earlier and repeatedly
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
jeterl
3 days ago
We made it boys, looks like UMA is voting yes on the November market.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BigMike11
3 days ago
Look, pumping the No price rather than making sound arguments is a strategy. But, maybe not the best one?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 day ago
Here's the plan, we get the Yes price back to 70c. UMA will be forced to side with us.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Phrank
1 day ago
Did a bit of digging and looks like the second and third largest voters (1.5 million uma each) are anonymous wallets that have only one transaction and were just recently funded by the Risk Labs main wallet (0x8180D59b7175d4064bDFA8138A58e9baBFFdA44a)… which means half of all NO votes were basically Kevin Chan and the Uma team. Crazy market manipulation, definitely illegal, and they didn’t even hide it that well haha
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Wombus
6 days ago
Vance is fucking retarded lmao
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
1 hour ago
I will not be profit taking on the way up. We holding to 100c boys
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
50-Pence
3 days ago
The Ayes have it
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
aldynspeedruns
3 days ago
this is a win-win scenario. Either I win, or car loses. No matter what I win.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
2 days ago
Gather around comrades, for the next 24 hours will define our age, define men from boys and forge legends onchain. We will snatch victory from the clutches of tyrants and pronounce a new age of justice and fairness in our sacred kingdom! Now rest well lads, for tomorrow, WE RIDE!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
2 days ago
https://x.com/Ttvxiunitv/status/1842757896729149782 JUSTKEN CRYING TO THE REFS, THAT'S WHEN YOU KNOW IT'S OVER 🤣 add - astandsforanime for information on how to vote during the final dispute! They could still steal this so it's important you VOTE 💥
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
2 days ago
Im back to the 70k shares i had before Sept30th ;)
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
2 days ago
If you feel so strongly about it, shouldn't you bet like 500k on No? At this point the price is unlikely to influence voters anyway, so take your profit.
🤺JustKen
2 days ago
Last and final warning from good guy domer that despite the price, it is unlikely that P2 wins, and this price is absolutely bonkers crazy
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
FamilyCapital
2 days ago
Car sold 1,105 Yes at 61.0¢ ($674) || Yes holders, be cautious: Car is known as one of the best predictors. He even predicted that his future wife would cheat on him, which is why he has chosen to be gay.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
1 day ago
The way UMA is designed and distributed right now makes for a very toxic system as far as I can see. The main bulk consists of UMA team members who vote with enough tokens to achieve Quorum on all disputes. Then, the main incentive to purchase large amounts of UMA outside of that actually comes from traders + arbers who want to manipulate the dispute mechanism to trade in and out of positions during the dispute or arb the final decision. This makes for a very unhealthy system where the incentive does not always amount to the most objective truth imo. Mechanisms like the reveal period, incentivise Whales not to reveal their side of the vote to supress the price and buy up more tokens for the side they think will win for example. Between the core tokens being held by 2-3 people, and this attraction of actors who seek to profit from the dispute mechanism, lack of transparency and timely visibility on whose voting unless you run a node and can code Dune requests. Its just a terrible look for any new user who gets involved in a dispute like this and encounters the process. Should be very high on Poly's to do list after the election, Polytoken and use it for their own system thats much improved. Just an analysis of the current system and its flaws, i dont necessarily want to revert this decision or anything, it is what it is.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
1 day ago
Polymarket HAS to take action. This was a clearly manipulated voting, any unbiased arbitrator would resolve this to Yes or to 50/50 in the worst case. The group of 2-5 people that control most of the votes at UMA colluded to vote No and then continually sold Yes in the market. This goes against everything that Polymarket should stand for. I will not remained with my arms crossed and will take it to the last consequences legally and publicly with the media. Polymarket needs to step up and defend its good faith customers that where blatantly scammed. Even the No holders mock saying they bought because they know how rigged was the market, not because there was any proof backing that position. Polymarket needs to intervene or this will have long term consequences, do what is right! That’s how you build a trusted and successful company!
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
SwiftiesForTrump
6 days ago
oh my God, I see why Trump picked Vance now. This man is REALLY sharp
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
n/a
6 days ago
How is anyone watching this and buying walz
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
TheGuru
6 days ago
Well if ipsos doesn't release a poll Vance wins by default as he won in yougov's poll
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Zeke21
6 days ago
How this isn’t 99% Vance winning at this point is beyond me
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
n/a
5 days ago
when is this shit coming out
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
6 days ago
This market fixation just shows how much there's to improve on polymarket's side. These unclear market Enter/Invade are too poorly defined. It's not a market about information anymore but about semantic. Depending on semantic, each side can win
Last update on October 8, 2024, 7:31 PM ET
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