Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?
keribit
7 months ago
I agree this is the strongest argument for "Yes". Still think the odds should be more like 10% Yes for two main reasons. 1) The resolution date, I do not think it will happen this fast, it's having more benefit than downside right now. 3.5 months is very little in government time. 2) It may have lost the function against smuggeling, but that was never the only stated goal. Trumps National Security Advisor pick recently said America's "core interests" there are the Islamic State (IS) group, Israel and "our Gulf Arab allies". ISIS related utility might be small but there is some. Jordan specifically is helpful with Iran vs Israel and the missile attacks, and previously asked Trump to keep the base, which he did. Now with the added instability they'll be even more worried of terrorist infiltrations. 250 troops for another year or two are an easy concession to make to an official major non-nato ally in such a critical location. Plus you'd wait for things to calm down in general regarding HTS and Iran before pulling out. It's one more useful chip on the table, one influence lever with their controlled trained groups around the base.
3
denizz
7 months ago
This base was positioned to block a weapons smuggling route between Iran and Hezbollah, a route which no longer exists due to the fall of the Syrian government. Otherwise it is in the middle of the desert in an unpleasant location. It is not in an SDF area and the rebels located there were a token force which will now fold into the Syrian military structures. The refugees located there are also returning to their homes. This base adds minimal value to anti-Islamic State operations. US presence west of the Euphrates will be a particular source of friction with the new Syrian government, and the base has no legal standing at this point. Trump is insistent on withdrawing from Syria, and this base will be the first to go. It only has around 250 personnel and minimal military assets so withdrawal would be rapid.
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