Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
peasant
2 months ago
Agreed, I think that caused a ton of confusion (and I had to check resolution criteria a couple times). Im also max risk here, but my methodology is looking at known uncounted votes and applying that criteria (as well as a curing discount). Last time I ran it, 153m counted with 2.63m estimated to be counted which means an unreasonable 23% of uncounted votes would either have no presidential vote or not pass ballot curing.
6
rabs
2 months ago
OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)
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