Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
person1
2 months ago
As a Venezuelan, I and am very disappointed by this market. I read the fine print carefully– particularly “the primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Venezuela” – and concluded that this bet was about who the regime’s Electoral Authority (CNE) would announce as the winner. This reading was consistent with Maduro trading at ~80 cents, which “priced in” that Venezuela’s institutions are stacked in Chavismo’s favor and are very likely to declare Maduro winner regardless of what happened on election day. This market was a hedge for me. I knew Maduro would be announced winner, and that my family will continue to be screwed by his incompetence and corruption for years to come. So I bet Maduro YES to recover some money from that depressing prospect. The Electoral Authority has now declared twice that Maduro is the winner. First on July 29th with “80%” of the votes counted, and then again on Aug 2nd with “96.87% of the votes counted” and 51.95% Maduro, 43.18% Gonzalez, a mathematically irreversible result. And yet this market has not resolved. I do not understand this. My hope is that once Venezuela’s Supreme Court looks at the supposed “evidence” that the Electoral Authority and all candidates have submitted and makes a “verdict” – once again affirming Maduro the winner – that the market will finally resolve Maduro YES, as it should have two days ago.
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Liked by AugustoPin..., n/a and 18 others
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