Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
person1
10 months ago
As a Venezuelan, I and am very disappointed by this market. I read the fine print carefully– particularly “the primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Venezuela” – and concluded that this bet was about who the regime’s Electoral Authority (CNE) would announce as the winner. This reading was consistent with Maduro trading at ~80 cents, which “priced in” that Venezuela’s institutions are stacked in Chavismo’s favor and are very likely to declare Maduro winner regardless of what happened on election day. This market was a hedge for me. I knew Maduro would be announced winner, and that my family will continue to be screwed by his incompetence and corruption for years to come. So I bet Maduro YES to recover some money from that depressing prospect. The Electoral Authority has now declared twice that Maduro is the winner. First on July 29th with “80%” of the votes counted, and then again on Aug 2nd with “96.87% of the votes counted” and 51.95% Maduro, 43.18% Gonzalez, a mathematically irreversible result. And yet this market has not resolved. I do not understand this. My hope is that once Venezuela’s Supreme Court looks at the supposed “evidence” that the Electoral Authority and all candidates have submitted and makes a “verdict” – once again affirming Maduro the winner – that the market will finally resolve Maduro YES, as it should have two days ago.
20
·
Liked by GenaTheCro..., HamasDidNo... and 18 others
Reactions
| User | Date |
|---|---|
| sk33625 | 10 months ago |
| Gena🐊 | 10 months ago |
| mr.ozi | 10 months ago |
| bigdicker | 10 months ago |
| ManL | 10 months ago |
| DECRAPisDUMBandGAY | 10 months ago |
| DumplingBMF | 10 months ago |
| iseethefuture | 10 months ago |
| nop.nop | 10 months ago |
| PrimePenguin | 10 months ago |
| n/a | 10 months ago |
| betafun | 10 months ago |
| ALMOST | 10 months ago |
| melquiades | 10 months ago |
| YatSen | 10 months ago |
| n/a | 10 months ago |
| Bidensupporter123 | 10 months ago |
| kUMA | 10 months ago |
| FrederickRecio | 10 months ago |
| BrendanLong | 10 months ago |