Will the UNRWA win the nobel peace prize? | Polymarket Tracker

This market is closed and no longer accepting bets.

5

Comments

1

Market

0

Comments per hour

Summary

The discussion centers around whether the UNRWA is undervalued in its chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize. Some participants believe the current valuation of 8% is too low, citing that the figure should be much higher, possibly over 50%, if the market were efficient. Others argue that the UNRWA is too controversial due to potential backlash and past investigations, which could make the Nobel committee rethink awarding them the prize.

One camp believes that without any controversies, UNRWA's chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize would be significantly higher than currently valued.
Another group highlights the organization's controversies and past investigations as potential reasons for the Nobel committee to reconsider or possibly avoid awarding them the prize.

Comments

Very undervalued here at 8% should be at least 20+ if this was an efficient market

MaxValueInvestor

My reaction was the opposite, I thought the UNRWA were too controversial and the likelihood of the Nobel committee regretting it based on new revelations is too high? See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNRWA#Investigations_and_calls_for_accountability_and_reform

Very undervalued here at 8% should be at least 20+ if this was an efficient market

totally... https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/nobel-peace-prize-odds-prediction/ lol...

Very undervalued here at 8% should be at least 20+ if this was an efficient market

I think without any potential backlash odds are 50+. Realistically its either URNWA or they dont give an award which I think is quite likely

MaxValueInvestor

My reaction was the opposite, I thought the UNRWA were too controversial and the likelihood of the Nobel committee regretting it based on new revelations is too high? See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNRWA#Investigations_and_calls_for_accountability_and_reform

MaxValueInvestor

At the same time, some people say it's likely, that's why I'm not betting myself. https://www.reuters.com/world/nobel-peace-prize-could-honour-unrwa-icj-un-chief-guterres-2024-10-03/

MaxValueInvestor

My reaction was the opposite, I thought the UNRWA were too controversial and the likelihood of the Nobel committee regretting it based on new revelations is too high? See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNRWA#Investigations_and_calls_for_accountability_and_reform