U.S. Recession in 2024? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion on the prospects of a U.S. recession in 2024 brings forth varying opinions and analyses. Participants express mixed views on the likelihood of a recession, with some pointing to historical parallels and economic indicators as forewarning signs. There is an ongoing debate about the effectiveness of cryptocurrencies as a recession hedge, with opposing views on their stability and role during economic downturns. The discussion highlights concerns over commercial real estate's potential to influence a recession and skepticism about near-term economic predictions based on official data and market projections.

The Role of Cryptocurrencies: Opinions are divided on whether cryptocurrencies are an effective hedge during recessions. Some argue that they thrive during economic challenges, while others point out their limitations as a recession hedge.
Economic Indicators and Predictions: Participants reference various economic forecasts, such as GDP projections and past recession timelines, to assess 2024 recession risks. There is skepticism about the reliability of these indicators and official proclamations, underscoring the differing perspectives on what constitutes a recession.

Comments

just like my brother's hairline, this shit is gonna recede

Liked by Donkov, SkillzThat... and 7 others

We have been in one, but what you mean is "0 chance the BEA will report one"

Zero chance of a recession.

The recesssion just starts, the crash of stock market and crypto, this is a sure horse to bet!

Obviously, bad title for the market. Recessions are when NBER declare it.

Then bet "no" if you are so sure of your judgement, lol

I wont be betting this market but since the Q1 and Q2 data is out and positive then really it just leaves the last 2 quarters. Honestly I think 45c no is way too low. Maybe somewhere around 70/75c

The real Q1 is only 1.4%, and Q2 "advance estimate" data is 2.8% currently, but don't get excited yet, It's not the final data yet. It's very likely the final Q2 data could be negative. Some negative news: Berkshire Hathaway sold half its apple stock for cash; US stock market crashed; Japan stock market crashed; Crypto market crashed; US unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July.

Someone said the Q2 advance estimate 2.8% has no way go negative, I did some research for you. 2008 Q1 advance estimate GDP increase 0.6%, the revision -2.3% , that's 2.9% margin. So don't say "no way", there is always a way, lol

"within the calendar year 2024"

It is already here, the definition was met on 2023-2024

technically we'll only know if theres a recession 10 years later

Jesus, amazon is down almost 20% in overnight. It’s going to be a bloodbath tomorrow