Will there be a 269-269 tie in Electoral College?

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Last updated 1 year ago

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Summary

In the discussion surrounding the betting market on whether there will be a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, participants generally consider a tie to be highly improbable. The consensus is that the odds presented are too high, with estimates for the probability of a tie ranging from 0.2% to 1%. For this rare outcome to occur, specific election results, like winning particular states, would need to align ideally. Some comments reflect on the potential chaos that could ensue if there were a tie, particularly regarding the role of faithless electors. A minority see a slight possibility given particular state wins, but overall skepticism prevails.

Probability Analysis: Most comments suggest a very low probability of a 269-269 tie, ranging from 0.2% to 1% due to the need for specific state results.
Potential Consequences: Speculation on a tie includes concerns about faithless electors and the ensuing political fallout.

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