Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion around the possibility of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before July is marked by a range of opinions. Some commentators express optimism, citing recent political agreements and negotiations involving Trump and Macron as reasons for potential progress. Others are skeptical, pointing out ongoing geopolitical complexities, particularly Russia's stance, which they argue makes a ceasefire unlikely. There is also debate over the market's pricing of the event, with some believing it to be undervalued given the current geopolitical maneuvers.

Key Political Movements: There are discussions about Trump's meetings with Macron and possible negotiations with Russia, with some commenters suggesting these efforts might lead to a peace deal, although significant skepticism remains regarding Russia's willingness to compromise.
Market Sentiment: Participants seem divided on whether the market is underpriced or overvalued, reflecting differing beliefs about the likelihood of a ceasefire occurring before July. Some see potential in buying "YES" while others maintain a more conservative approach, citing geopolitical uncertainties.

Comments

There was no way it went through the first winter either..

no way this shit is continuing post summer

Working quite hard for those 22 bucks.

There will be no ceasefire. Macron's speech and the proposals he is making are exactly what the Europeans have been advocating for three years and what Putin does not want. It does not reflect the military situation on the ground, and there is no illusion about the fact that Ukraine is in difficulty. There is no mention of lifting economic sanctions, no mention of recognizing territories, no mention of organizing elections, and there is even talk of deploying special forces. Above all, Macron spoke of ensuring that Ukraine maintains a well-equipped and trained army, while Russia wants Ukraine to be completely demilitarized. There is nothing in favor of Russia, nothing that would discourage Russia from continuing to seize territory. And I did not see Trump correct Macron. Something is off; I think there will be an escalation, or Trump and Macron were pretending to understand each other in front of the audience. I am truly surprised.

Ceasefire is coming, Trump will stop the war!

I am shocked that this YES still under .50 when Trump is moving at record speeds.

Investors are pouring money into companies set to profit from Ukraine’s peace and reconstruction. The UBS Ukraine Reconstruction Index has hit an all-time high as Trump and Putin agree to negotiate an end to the war.

Russia will agree on peace plan given its conditions are met, and will not accept ceasefire. Peskov - Putin’s spokesman

buy yes and be patient. when it goes to 0 redeem.

buy yes and be patient. Everything will settle

How ist this only .50?

Yeah it's that OR not willing to waste my time reading a brick of words from someone betting $10 pretending to be a geopolitical expert.

There will be no ceasefire. Macron's speech and the proposals he is making are exactly what the Europeans have been advocating for three years and what Putin does not want. It does not reflect the military situation on the ground, and there is no illusion about the fact that Ukraine is in difficulty. There is no mention of lifting economic sanctions, no mention of recognizing territories, no mention of organizing elections, and there is even talk of deploying special forces. Above all, Macron spoke of ensuring that Ukraine maintains a well-equipped and trained army, while Russia wants Ukraine to be completely demilitarized. There is nothing in favor of Russia, nothing that would discourage Russia from continuing to seize territory. And I did not see Trump correct Macron. Something is off; I think there will be an escalation, or Trump and Macron were pretending to understand each other in front of the audience. I am truly surprised.

Mineral deal, open negotiations with Russia and Trump actually stated today that there may be peace within weeks, which Macron agreed with. I believe the peace deal has already been agreed to by Ukraine and they are just trying to sell it to Russia at this point.