RFK Jr. popular vote share? | Polymarket Tracker

This market is open and accepting bets.

68

Comments

8

Markets

0

Comments per hour

Summary

The discussion regarding RFK Jr.'s potential vote share revolves around the complexities of his withdrawal from the presidential race and his apparent endorsement of Trump, which seems to confuse participants about the likely outcomes. Despite asking his supporters to vote for Trump, RFK Jr. remains on many ballots, prompting some to argue that he might still capture more than 1% of the vote due to residual support and voters casting ballots mistakenly or intentionally for him. Others suggest that such predictions are "delusional" given his official withdrawal and veering endorsements, but some contributors maintain that his presence on the ballot in numerous states and prior polling numbers leave room for a vote share above 1%.

RFK Jr.'s endorsement of Trump and withdrawal from the race has caused significant uncertainty over his actual potential vote share, with opinions divided between predictions of over or under 1%.
Despite his withdrawal, RFK Jr. remains on ballots in numerous states, leading some to argue that mistaken or loyal votes could push his share above 1%.

Comments

If he drops out, he'd still be on the ballot and would presumably still get a good number of votes. In 1992, Ross Perot "dropped out" in July, but he was already on the ballot in almost every state. Polls showed a good number of people were still going to vote for him, so he "re-entered" on October 1. He ended up getting 18.9% of the popular vote.

What happens if he drops out? Would it resolve to less than 1% or 50/50? Or would it remain unresolved in the event that people would write him in?

VaithunPhuSang-Fabric

He was retired, and it was very hard for him to get over 1% of the vote .....

Arbiter-of-Truth

Easy No for a lot of these but deciding to hold off on any election markets until we get to November. Much better use of capital until then

Give me 1.3-1.6% with RFK on 30 ballots

The math is impossible. He has 0.46%, with 95% of the vote counted. Sell off your positions now to recoup anything you can.

BiggestBidenFan

He's asking people not to vote for him https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1833495327040803288

This is a very underestimated market. Current polling results show that over 4% of all votes are for third-party candidates, and RFK is at least the 2nd largest 3pc. 1-2% is underlooked by many.

Yeah I agree, I expect 150+ million people to vote this year. I think it's entirely plausible that more than 1.5 million of those will vote (mistakenly or otherwise) for RFK jr. I think you're going to get a hundred thousand erroneous 'i clicked the wrong button' situations on the electronic voting machines, perhaps from the boomers and the elderly. All it takes is one or two million people who are completely disatisfied with the two party system to vote for RFK Jr in protest. In spite of his character assassination, the current odds seem like a good risk to reward ratio.

This is a very underestimated market. Current polling results show that over 4% of all votes are for third-party candidates, and RFK is at least the 2nd largest 3pc. 1-2% is underlooked by many.

What happens if he drops out? Would it resolve to less than 1% or 50/50? Or would it remain unresolved in the event that people would write him in?

Can someone explain to me why RFK JR deserves less than 1% of the popular vote?