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Summary
The discussion around the betting market "Harris blowout victory?" primarily revolves around the likelihood of Kamala Harris securing a significant win in the election, possibly by winning all six swing states and North Carolina. Contributors reference Nate Silver's model to estimate the probability of such outcomes, with some participants exploring arbitrage opportunities in betting. Questions were raised about the potential electoral map, comparisons were made with past elections, and there are different viewpoints on the potential returns from betting on Harris.
- The probability of Harris winning key swing states and North Carolina simultaneously is debated, with statistical models like Nate Silver's referred to for probability estimation.
- Participants discuss strategic betting positions, considering possible electoral outcomes and historical comparisons to assess the viability of a significant Harris victory.
Comments
0x4a0D2424e2fc35826240B25e7fA14fC88fCF444e-1730840281839
1 year ago
Of all pairs, this pair was free money. Can't believe people so delusional they think harris had a chance to win by over 100 votes
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daniel.sousa.me
1 year ago
Nate Silver's model currently gives a 32.9% chance that Trump gets 219 electoral votes or fewer
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ISHOWMEAT
1 year ago
I want Kamala to blow me out 🤤
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n/a
1 year ago
Bro is down bad
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ISHOWMEAT
1 year ago
I want Kamala to blow me out 🤤
GlebK
1 year ago
TRUMP 2024
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n/a
1 year ago
Bro is cooked
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ISHOWMEAT
1 year ago
I want Kamala to blow me out 🤤
mike.ch
1 year ago
Easy money
5
gings
1 year ago
sun belt sweep for kamala is already at 26, so as the trend seems this is same as kamala winning sunbelt
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Bakersdelight
1 year ago
Will this get to 28% by Tuesday?
cockbrain
1 year ago
dont you make less from this market than just betting on # of votes?
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Aldebaran
1 year ago
This market already exists you morons
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