Israel military response against Iran in October? | Polymarket Tracker

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Israel military response against Iran in October?

Last updated 1 year ago

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Summary

The discussion about Israel's potential military response to Iran is multifaceted, with participants considering various political and military factors. Some believe an attack may occur before the upcoming U.S. elections, assuming Israel would want to impact the election results. Key points include considerations of Israel's defensive capabilities and possible political implications of military action, such as oil price impacts and international relations, particularly with the U.S. Others are skeptical, noting Israel's current military engagements and limitations, arguing that current political and strategic considerations make a strike unlikely.

Timing and Strategy: A significant number of participants assert that if Israel were to act, it would logically be before the U.S. election to potentially influence its outcome. Others believe there will be no action until after the election, to maintain stability during this critical period.
Military Capabilities and Risks: Comments highlighted concerns about Israel's military readiness and the complexity of starting a new conflict while dealing with existing threats from Hezbollah and balancing international relations, particularly with the U.S.

Comments

If Israel strikes on the 1st of November, I'll rope on a live stream. You have my word.

lol every time I see you you are on the wrong side

I bought Yes at around 87. I'm disheartened to see it go down, because I don't like risk, but I'm still reasonably confident. Here's a couple things some of you no-holders are not considering: the main obstacle to Israel striking Iran was Netanyahu's inability to reach agreement with Biden on the targets they'd strike. The THAAD system deal today is proof that Netanyahu and Biden have come to an understanding, which theoretically means there's no reason for Israel to not strike tomorrow. Will they wait until after the election? Frankly, I don't think so. If I were Netanyahu and I wanted Trump to win, I would start a war with Iran RIGHT BEFORE the election to make the Biden/Kamala campaign look weak. Meetings are still ongoing with the security cabinet, but probably not for much longer. My prediction, although this won't win me extra money, is that the first Israeli strike will be relatively small, not the armageddon some of you are watching/hoping for, but Israel will make it very clear that they're keeping the tab open and will follow up with more strikes. Primarily on military/intelligence targets, maybe with a symbolic strike on the nuclear program thrown in. But who knows

No is cheap — lots on options to respond not on Iranian soil...

good morning citizens of the world may we pray for pece

UnofficialDonaldTrump

Given all the factors, including heightened tensions following the death of Hassan Nasrallah, recent missile exchanges between Iran and Israel, and the geopolitical dynamics involving Russia, the U.S. elections, and Israel’s strategic interests, I would estimate the probability of an Israeli attack on Iran within the next 17 days as follows: YES (Israel will attack Iran): 35% NO (Israel will not attack Iran): 65% While the situation is tense and the conditions for conflict are there, Israel may still weigh the risks of immediate escalation and the geopolitical consequences before making such a significant move, especially given the U.S. election timeline and potential international backlash.

Who's even buying no on this?

These are some really good odds for the “nothing ever happens” gang

covert attacks could lose in uma

Israel is likely to mount a large-scale airstrike against Iran’s oil industry and possibly a symbolic attack on a military target related to its nuclear programme, former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak has predicted. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/04/israel-may-launch-symbolic-attack-on-iran-nuclear-facilities-says-ehud-barak