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Summary
The discussion on the betting market regarding the viewership for the Vice Presidential debate focused on predictions based on historical data and the actual reported viewership. Participants used data from previous debates to estimate this year’s numbers, emphasizing the historical pattern where Vice Presidential debates attract around 77% of the first Presidential debate's audience. There was also a point of confusion about market rules and resolution, which was clarified by users. A key piece of information was a link to Nielsen's report, confirming over 43 million viewers for the debate.
- Using historical data, participants estimated that the viewership for the Vice Presidential debate would be around 37 million based on a figure of 48 million viewers for the first Presidential debate and historical averages.
- There was confirmation of the actual viewership through Nielsen's report, which indicated viewership numbers exceeding 43 million, combined with some confusion and resolution discussions regarding the market rules.
Comments
PaeniscusKyu
1 year ago
All rules for all brackets say market resolves to Yes if there is no debate. This is obviously wrong since it's a negrisk market. Be careful
3
debased
1 year ago
bull's eye
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n/a
1 year ago
Any way to know exactly when the result will be posted in Nielsen?
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0xE42c9d2ef
1 year ago
https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/2024-vice-presidential-debate-draws-over-43-million-viewers/
1
Manowa
1 year ago
No one want lock 750 ?
1
0xE42c9d2ef
1 year ago
https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/2024-vice-presidential-debate-draws-over-43-million-viewers/
0xE42c9d2ef
1 year ago
They fixed the mistake should be ‘no’ right now
0
PaeniscusKyu
1 year ago
All rules for all brackets say market resolves to Yes if there is no debate. This is obviously wrong since it's a negrisk market. Be careful
JoebamaBiden
1 year ago
we're not getting another debate, so i think people will watch this to get their political fix
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spacebike
1 year ago
On average, VP debates since 2000 have had 77% the ratings of the first presidential debate. (It would be 65% if you take out the Palin debate from 2008.) This year, 48 million watched the first presidential debate. 77% of that would be 37 million.
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spacebike
1 year ago
Here's a spreadsheet with details. Numbers from Wikipedia. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L2XQZZJbhYlKQjBPRjF4e69eYTZy2wQ-GYJSLMu-klY/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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spacebike
1 year ago
On average, VP debates since 2000 have had 77% the ratings of the first presidential debate. (It would be 65% if you take out the Palin debate from 2008.) This year, 48 million watched the first presidential debate. 77% of that would be 37 million.
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Snooze fest
0