How many swing states will Trump win? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion revolves around the betting odds of former President Trump winning swing states in the upcoming election. Participants are deeply divided on the likelihood of Trump achieving a clean sweep across all swing states, with many arguing that such an outcome is unrealistic. Some bettors are looking at alternative strategies, such as betting on Trump winning a subset of swing states or exploring better market opportunities. Additionally, there is skepticism about the implied probabilities used in setting the odds, leading to suggestions on more strategic betting approaches like partial arbitrage or betting against all swing states being won by one side.

There is widespread doubt that Trump will win all swing states, encouraging bettors to consider alternative bets for subsets of swing states.
There are concerns about the betting odds' accuracy, with suggestions to avoid market orders and exploit arbitrage opportunities.

Comments

Good point. I heard they are doing fraud in California, Toronto, and Istanbul too.

Liked by n/a, n/a and 15 others

With the amount of fraud by the democrat party that is already taking place in PA, VA, and MI - I don't see how its possible that he wins 6 or 7 of these

BigDaddyMoneyMaker

My mans talking taking your loot while down 7k

Easily the most mispriced markets on here. Trumptardz/Elon and Frenchie boy, keep getting gaslighted by your fake polls and I'll keep taking your loot. Don't matter til it's time to sell, keep giving me cheap buying opportunities LOL

voring no on 7 swing states is free money.

I want whatever the Yes - 0 are smoking.

CommonSenseSimon

You fucking moron! He's winning WI by 18% at this very moment in early voting returns! Do you cry yourself to sleep at night in the multiverse where there is an alternate Kamala that wins in another dimension?

LOL what happened?? The price has gone up by 11 cents in the last ~24H... You Trumptardz figure out he's going to lose MI? And Wi? Probably PA? Come on, keep gaslighting yourself with all your own fake polls and bid down these prices so I can take more of your loot on Election Day!!

liquidity is limited. look up spreads. look at how buy yes for 6 is 13, and buy no is 90.

can someone explain how the current total amounts to 107%?

So over 10% people think Trump cannot even win 1 swing state? wow...

then no for 7,ez 27% profit?

Imo he only win 3 , PA, AZ & GA

Personally, that’s one of the most guaranteed bets here. He’s going to win at least 1 swing state and probably more. So, IMO betting NO on 0 is a guaranteed return of appx 10%

Can someone clarify me the resolution criteria, if trump wins atleast 1 swing state then 0 NO is win right?

So put some money on him...

LOL what happened?? The price has gone up by 11 cents in the last ~24H... You Trumptardz figure out he's going to lose MI? And Wi? Probably PA? Come on, keep gaslighting yourself with all your own fake polls and bid down these prices so I can take more of your loot on Election Day!!