How many Fed rate cuts this year?

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Summary

The discussion centered around the forecast for the number of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024, with a focus on interpreting market movements in basis points to predict outcomes. Several participants debated whether rate cuts should be counted by the number of announcements or the total basis points (bps), with opinions varying. There were also discussions on the likelihood of additional rate cuts depending on upcoming meetings and potential economic factors.

Many participants debated whether a 25bps movement constitutes a single rate cut, which would mean a September cut of 50bps counts as two cuts in this market.
Participants questioned whether the market outcomes are based on cumulative basis points from rate cuts rather than the number of distinct announcements, influencing betting decisions.

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