This market is closed and no longer accepting bets.
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raspberry17
1 year ago
No model yet, what an embarrassment. 538 has gone to ruins. Another business wrecked by Disney
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Shayku
1 year ago
Just to freak the Trump holders out: Fivethirtyeight has been heavily criticized for their electoral model post-Silver. It is very possible that they use this chance to tweak it, notably to reduce the weight or nature of fundamentals. But even then, it's hard to imagine a scenario where they put Harris ahead.
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vote.fun
1 year ago
this dumbass model had biden winning until like 2 days before he dropped
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ncfom
1 year ago
Right but those are just poll #’s
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SzonyiD
1 year ago
Latest tweet from Morris (538): https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1818337834698158171?s=46&t=refnIw0so-EQe6McNmszNw
spacebike
1 year ago
Morris has said that Harris has 31% odds in the fundamentals model, which is ~85% of the model at this point in the cycle. Also, she has a 2-3pp electoral college bias against her (unfortunately).
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SzonyiD
1 year ago
Latest tweet from Morris (538): https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1818337834698158171?s=46&t=refnIw0so-EQe6McNmszNw
spacebike
1 year ago
I deleted as requested, but my posts were sincere! Ultimately, arguments made by you and @ncfom convinced me to sell before I lost even more money. In particular, the delayed relaunch has raised a bunch of questions. As y'all have pointed out, it seems like they're just waiting until the forecast shows Harris ahead to avoid the absurd scenario of her underperforming where Biden was at.
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PaeniscusKyu
1 year ago
Did the math, he lost $600 in 5.1k volume. @spacebike at least have the decency of deleting all your comments to clean up this feed
Whome
1 year ago
The fringe Trump supporters are shit at predicting, not PolyMarket. What they don't spend on crazy t-shirts and flags they spend on PM.
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Rafin
1 year ago
Do people think that 538 is a partisan fraud or do they think that Polymarket is ultimately shit at predicting stuff? Kamala being at 79% here and at 43% on the election outcome market is weird IMO.
Laura
1 year ago
I've made a huge mistake.
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vote.fun
1 year ago
what happened? -wetard
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Laura
1 year ago
I've made a huge mistake.
MtrxZ
1 year ago
Make a terrorist attack or Try to kill a former president
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Solipnihil
1 year ago
How can I create a new market here?