2024 October hottest on record? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

Discussion in the market concerned whether October 2024 was the hottest on record in comparison to previous years. Key points included the analysis of the data from the ERA5 and other climate sources, showing October 2024 as the second warmest globally, with some assertions that it was slightly cooler than October 2023. Participants debated the implications of released data on market pricing, with mixed opinions regarding the predicted outcomes. Some contributors expressed skepticism, highlighting discrepancies between various data sources such as NASA and ERA5 or the impact of other climate factors, like sea surface temperatures and recent cooling due to La Niña.

ERA5 data indicated October 2024 was the second warmest, but not the hottest compared to October 2023, causing confusion in market reactions.
The debate included skepticism about differing data points and the reliability of predictions based on incomplete datasets, with a focus on variations between land and sea temperatures.

Comments

ExhaustedBoyBilly

I am just a poor boy I need no sympathy, Because I'm easy come, easy go, Little high, little low, Anyway the wind blows doesn't really matter to me, to me!

Feeling nervous yet, Billy?

As always, thanks for donating =)

ExhaustedBoyBilly

Don't worry, we will lose together

Curious to hear your thoughts on this. So far, 15 out of 17 days in October 2024 have been colder than those of October 2023 (which was the hottest ever recorded). The data is based on the daily ERA5 update (global surface air and global sea temperatures), which overall is very close to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature

check latest data before you buy: https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/

Love these markets!

Temp markets are so much better than shitcoins (im coping)

ChilmarkGeneralStore

Sure is a hot one today

this october only within 0.02c of last year, and forecast to be very hot few days! always happy to see low iqs give me a free 4x

Curious to hear your thoughts on this. So far, 15 out of 17 days in October 2024 have been colder than those of October 2023 (which was the hottest ever recorded). The data is based on the daily ERA5 update (global surface air and global sea temperatures), which overall is very close to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature

Temp markets rule!

Temp markets are so much better than shitcoins (im coping)

ExhaustedBoyBilly

seems I paid too much for no if you guys win you should give me a small tip

As always, thanks for donating =)