100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion on the betting market about "100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31?" brings into focus the contrasting opinions on the probability of the event occurring, and how its odds are being priced. Some participants express skepticism about reaching the 100-case threshold, comparing monkeypox's infectiousness to COVID-19, while others cite past outbreaks and current statistics to argue that the market may be underestimating the risk. There are also concerns around specifics like the classification of different strains of the virus ("Clade 1") and how it may impact the outcome.

The debate centers around the likelihood of reaching 100 monkeypox cases by October 31, with divergent views on how contagious the current strain is compared to past instances.
Concerns arise over the market's wording and classification methods, such as distinguishing between different virus clades, which could affect how the results align with the event's criteria.

Comments

It only took a month from the first case of monkeypox to the first 100 cases back in 2022. (https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/response/2022/us-map.html) This strain is as infectious. Totally, it had 93k cases in 2022/2023, this one has 20k already. If "by 30th september" has 78%, this needs to be at the same rate as "one case till september", which is 78% (look at the Rules Text; it includes all October). Thanks for reading.

Can someone make zombie apocalypse end October market?

People really think there will be 100 Clade 1 cases in a month? Look Mom, they're selling dollars for 80 cents.

How will this work with the wording of "Clade 1" when they're already calling the Swedish variant Clade 1b? Does that count as Clade 1?

isn't the name MPOX now or something?

Guys where is mrbest did he commit the unthinkable ;( I always tried to be friends with him too put he was just too commited to being russian troll :(((((( #donate2mrbest

How will this work with the wording of "Clade 1" when they're already calling the Swedish variant Clade 1b? Does that count as Clade 1?

CompulsiveGambler

2 months. But yeah its a bond

People really think there will be 100 Clade 1 cases in a month? Look Mom, they're selling dollars for 80 cents.

so technically this can't resolve yes

isn't the name MPOX now or something?

this will b fun for a long time