Florida Presidential Election Winner
Apsalar
1 year ago
thanks for another well thought-out reply! i think your analysis is pretty solid imo but suggest remaining skeptical of the crosstabs in most cases. very rare for polymarket. those ec market you're invested in is one of the markets i was referring to, but i think there are others as well.
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0x63325293geDetgu4g028d8hh9dDegjAsuneg44
1 year ago
I was v curious where you are coming from and appreciate the reply. wrt abortion on the ballot, look, you may be right; although imho if it's to have an impact anywhere it will be most felt in FL because unlike other states that need 50% to pass, FL requires 60%. Consequently on Polymarket "Which states will pass amendments protecting abortion?" FL is only 64% vs 95% in most states. Ie it's really not a done-deal, it's a tight race and that's going to to mean more turnout amongst women who might not otherwise have bothered (as opposed to most states where it's a done deal), and obv are women lean KH this election. Let's say conservatively turnout is 5% more due to women, and they lean 5% KH that's 0.25%; hmm not much, might finally have to look at crosstabs :P Oh wait, here's a pitch: did you see a poll where leans are broken down by age, and in that poll Gen-Z lean 40% KH, and they also have the lowest turnout typically, and probably have the most abortions? Hmm, maybe 1%? hoho. Wrt correlated markets, I'm in ec already, but maybe you have a bigger brain meaning :) anyway thanks again for reply, gl.
Reactions
| User | Date |
|---|---|
| 0x63325293geDetgu4g028d8hh9dDegjAsuneg44 | 1 year ago |