Florida Presidential Election Winner
Apsalar
1 year ago
I think you are overrating the impact the abortion and weed ballot measures will have. i also think that even if you do think florida is being undervalued here, there are other correlated markets where you can get a better value.
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0x63325293geDetgu4g028d8hh9dDegjAsuneg44
1 year ago
I'm not sure how to ping both, so sorry will copy pasta; Trump is only +4 in Florida, and there's abortion and weed on the ballot so KH outperforms polling. How can you believe Harris will win overall, but not have a good chance at Florida? Many swing states are polling within a point of 2020 results, including Florida (my point being Florida's polling +4 Trump is probably what you'd expect rather than freaky outlier stuff). GOP is the obvious winner in Florida, but if you already have a pro-KH view nationally how are you not liking Florida odds at 18%? You already think she'll win 1-2% nationally if you have a pro-KH view (otherwise it's a toss-up with today's polling) and you both have positions in it! And you must admit she's likely to outperform polling with abortion and weed which will help with female and dem turnout. But you think 82% likely that KH won't win 2 extra points to narrowly win FL? You're not one of the ppl conflating presidential and gubernatorial elections are you? I just find it nuts. At 18% you could quintuple your money with a KH buy; or risk shedloads for a 25% ROIC with a GOP buy. Fair play and good luck, I just think there are easier ways to win 25% ROIC!
Reactions
| User | Date |
|---|---|
| 0x63325293geDetgu4g028d8hh9dDegjAsuneg44 | 1 year ago |