Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
1 year ago
have you actually noticed when the write-ins were added in 2020 at the resolution source? (Answer: 30% of the write-ins added after Dec 17th); You mention Alaska, but that's maybe 2-3k write-ins, you need over 230k to make this market a 'yes'. Relevant states are Cali, NY, Texas, Masachussetts... I did the math for all states and I see how you can get to 250k additional ones. I can also see how you fall short at 200k. I think it's a coin flip. (Well it would be a coin flip if all write-ins would magically get added on time, I don't see why that would happen given how many months it took in 2020)
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ChrisV
1 year ago
Well that was a very unpleasant position to unwind. I didn't want to say anything before now but I suspect that the reason Nate is predicting 1.7m Other votes is that he's counting, you know, votes. The things Atlas is counting are not votes. You can't, for example, actually vote for Cornel West in California (something WindWalk mentioned earlier), because he's not on the list of registered write-in candidates. You can tell write-ins for him are not votes, because 20 million Californians could hand one in and West would receive zero electoral votes. Write-ins like this will not appear in the certified vote count, this Atlas guy is going to go dig them out of the precinct results afterwards and add them to his site. In Alaska (another state yet to report write-in "votes"), write-in votes for President are not a thing at all under state law and this guy still has write-in vote totals listed in 2020. Personally I don't think vote tallies should include things other than votes, but that's the resolution source. People still tracking the vote dumps don't get it. Write-ins are not going to appear in them for a lot of states. They're going to get dug out at the end and pasted on top of everything else. I'm not sure why this didn't seem to happen in 2020, but it logically has to happen this time. I don't know what's going to happen as there is a lot of uncertainty, but I ran some numbers and it looked to me in the ballpark of a coinflip.
Reactions
| User | Date |
|---|---|
| Gondola | 56 years ago |