Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
1 year ago
In the screenshot that was shared 'Other' went from 1.78 (91.1% counted) to 1.95 (100% counted) counted). If I extrapolate you are still out of the money. My question is, are you hoping for a pump to scalp it or are you gonna hold and most likely end up with 0?
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Mega
1 year ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
