Comment by RobXK | Polymarket Tracker

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.