Comment by TheGuru | Polymarket Tracker

Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?

Kamala has about a 10% chance of winning all swing states, AZ, GA and NC are all 25% each, but as all are correlated and are about 1.5% leaning to Trump she has a good chance to win all of them if she wins 1 of them

I'll explain why I hold so much yes shares. Firstly, there is another market on this website asking how many swing state will Trump win. Of course if Trump wins 7 or 0 (as Kamala would win all 7) the total should add up to the same as the yes in this market. https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win It actually adds up to 29/30, hence why this market is undervalued.