Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?
TheGuru
1 year ago
There are other reasons, for example nate silver's model has Trump winning all swing states at 23.7% alone, yet has Trump at 51% to win the election and 37% to win Michigan. These states are highly correlated. a polling error of over 3% either direction will resolve in this market being yes and in politics that happens a lot
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