Comment by 0xBama | Polymarket Tracker

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Feel bad for the September bros tbh

Wondering whether Iranian attack on Israel just now increases or decreases odds of full invasion. If anything, I'd argue increases: Israel has a greater argument for establishing its own defense by force and can argue it would expect Hezbollah attacks in event of a war with Iran which now seems likely. Yesers, don't give up hope. What we're seeing right now from Israel is not the full invasion but shaping operations for a larger movement that will involve more troops and mechanized forces. And yes, they will have to establish temporary control over parts of Southern Lebanon to accomplish this. Remember, this isn't the invasion in September market. Don't count your chickens, but don't think we have egg on our face either. It's going to be a long month.