Tipping Point State in 2024 Election?
yoonmarketenjoyer
1 year ago
Doing the math, if Wisconsin votes to the right of Pennsylvania like it always does and Harris wins the Blue Wall, Wisconsin will almost certainly be the tipping point state. Trump needs to win either Wisconsin or Penn as his most likely path if he takes the Sun Belt. In this case Wisconsin again would be the likely tipping point state. So the two most likely scenarios for each candidate's path involve Wisconsin being the tipping point state IF Wisconsin votes to the right of Pennsylvania as it usually does and as it likely will again thanks to its demographics. I suspect this market is heavily influenced by Nate Silver's model, which I believe is fundamentally flawed because it assumes Wisconsin will vote to the left of Pennsylvania thanks to likely inaccurate polling data.
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| User | Date |
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| P0lyhedr0n- | 1 year ago |
| SkillzThatKillz | 1 year ago |
| AKAxyz | 1 year ago |